Saturday, August 28, 2021

PPC ahead of Greens in latest poll: can Bernier join the Debate now?

In "Canada's only conservative leader barred from debate", WWW 21/8/21, I wrote: 

The Leaders' Debates Commission, a supposedly non-partisan group chaired by former Governor-General David Johnston, is organizing two Leaders' Debates, in French and English, to be televised on September 8th and 9th. The Commission announced, very quietly, late Friday afernoon (when all Canadians are en route to their cottages), that all the leaders had been invited to participate, with the exception of... wait for it... Maxime Bernier!

The excuse given by the Commission for deplatforming Mad Max is that to be eligible to participate, one must be the leader of a party which: - has at least one MP in the House of Commons who was elected as a member of that party -.received at least four per cent of the total number of votes cast in the 2019 election, and - has a national support level of at least four per cent, five days after the date the election is called, as measured by leading national public opinion polling organizations.

The first criterion was in place in 2019 but was struck down by a court challenge, since M Bernier had a seat in Parliament, having been elected as a Conservative prior to forming the PPC. So the second and third criteria were added to raise the bar high enouogh that the PPC would not qualify.

As it was, it was close. A poll released just ahead of Mr Johnston's announcement put the People's Party at 6% of decided voters, compared with 3% for the Soylent Greens. But the Commission calculated the PPC's average level of national support at 3.27%, just enough to lose out.

But guess what, campers?! The pollsters at Ekos -- usually great friends of Mr Socks and his party -- have just released some startling new numbers.


Ed. says the image will just be more fuzzy if he makes it bigger, so let me highlight these numbers:
Of the six parties which are now being tracked, the Greens now hold 6th (and last) place, with 4.2% of the voters polled. Le Bloc Québécois are second-last at 5.1%, but that should be marked with a * because they will only field candidates in Québec, and should be good for at least 10% of the 338 seats in the House of Commons.

Third-last (or fourth from the top), is Maxime Bernier's People's Party of Canada, with 6.3%! That number is in line with their support in a poll released the day that the Leaders' Debate Commission said that the PPC didn't have enough support to warrant including "Mad Max" in the debates scheduled for September 8th-9th. The Commission ignored that poll. Let's see them ignore this one!

No comments:

Post a Comment