Fall election after all?

Walt's prediction: December 31st will see Harpoon still in office, thanks to the fecklessness of the gutless Grits.

That's what I wrote on Saturday (29/8). The next day the Leader of Her Majesty's Loyal Opposition and Government-in-Waiting got up on his hind feet and said his party wasn't gutless or feckless and would "withdraw its support" from the Harper Tories.

Would that mean a quick no confidence vote followed by a fall election? Iggy didn't actually answer that question, leaving it to Bob "I never believed in socialism" Rae to say "Maybe."

Sorry, but Walt has seen this movie before, and recently too. Remember the big hoo-hah about EI reform, just last spring? If the Tories didn't loosen the EI purse-strings, the Grits were gonna bring them down. Oh yeah! Bring on the election! But...er...things didn't quite turn out that way.

What we're hearing from the Liberal hawks sounds to me like more of the same, another cry of "wolf" to persuade credulous voters that the Grits are not shit-scared of facing the electorate with little money and no platform.

Fortunately for the Liberals, they alone can't bring down Mr. Harpoon. If they bring a no-confidence motion on one of the opposition days -- say October 1st or 7th -- they would need the support of both the Bloc Québecois and the NDP to topple the government. Neither party shows much inclination to enter the fray.

The Not-So-New Democrats have a leader who is well past his prime. Jack "I'm running for Prime Minister" Layton should have resigned quietly after last year's election, when his party couldn't do better than a 4th-place finish, in spite of running against the weakest Liberal leader ever.

They have a competent leader waiting in the wings. Thomas Mulcair is bilingual, obviously intelligent, and performs well in the House and especially in committees. Too bad for him he represents a Montréal riding (a miracle in itself) and will need a minor miracle to be re-elected.

As for the Bloc, they look like winning 30-40 seats in Québec no matter when the next election takes place. They have nothing to gain from a change in government so would probably be quite content to uphold the status quo for another 9 months or so.

Walt stands by his prediction.

Footnote: What a pity Gilles Duceppe isn't a Liberal!