Sunday, February 9, 2020

UPDATED: Ireland wakes up! Sinn Fein wins big in weekend elections

UPDATE ADDED 22/2/20: For a good in-depth analysis of what the success of Sinn Féin could mean in terms of the long-awaited unification of Ireland, Walt recommends "Is some revelation at hand? Brexit and Sinn Fein's success boost talk of Irish unification", in The Economist, 13/2/20.

Walt is almsot always happy to report on a nationalist political party doing well at the polls, because nationalism (IMHO) is natural to human beings. Globalism is unnatural. People prefer being with other people like themselves, in their own country, on their own land.

The Irish, after an inexplicable interlude in which they flirted with internationalism, diversity, inclusivity and all that rubbish, appear to have woken up, and I don't mean that in the liberal way! Since June of 2017, the government of the Irish Republic has been headed by Leo Varadkar, who has served as Taoiseach (Prime Minister) and Minister for Defence.

Mr Varadkar is ethnically Indian, and openly as gay as 18 balloons. It was therefore a bit of a surprise that when former Taoiseach Enda Kenny decided to quit in May of 2017, Mr Varadkar stood in the election to replace him as leader of the governing Fine Gael party. Although more party members voted for his opponent, Mr Varadkar prevalied, and was elected leader, thus becoming, at age 38, the youngest- (and gayest-) ever Taoiseach.

This weekend the plain people of Ireland (Hello Myles na Gopaleen!) had a chance to express their opinion of Mr Varadkar and his government, and surprised the pundits by (apparently) voting in roughly equal numbers for Gael, the opposition Fianna Fáil, and... wait for it... Sinn Féin, a left-wing party committed to reunification of the island. Sinn Féin is regarded, unofficially at least, as being the political arm of the Irish Republican Army.

Its many critics accuse Sinn Féin of having failed to repudiate the role of the IRA in the sectarian violence in Northern Ireland. The plain people of Ireland apparently don't have a problem with that, as exit polls show the party in a virtual dead heat with the two parties that have governed since the country won independence (for all but the northern part of the island) almost a century ago.

Ballot counting is still under way as I write, but with 96% of first-preference votes tallied, Sinn Féin had 24.1%, Fianna Fáil 22.1%, Fine Gael also 22.1%, the Greens at 7.4%, and small left-wing parties and independents comprising the rest. The Grauniad calls the result "stunning".

Preliminary vote tallies suggested Sinn Féin could win around 36 seats, up from 22 in the outgoing Dáil, far exceeding its own expectations. It appealed to young voters in particular, who felt left behind by a booming economy and chafed at soaring rents, homelessness, insurance costs and hospital waiting lists.

The predicted outcome means some type of coalition government is almost inevitable, with Sinn Féin likely to be a central player in the negotiations to form one. Until now, both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have refused to work with Sinn Féin because of its links to the IRA. Now, though, the centrist parties' resolve may weaken as politicians reckon with the reality of Sinn Fein's strong showing.

But their sudden grudging acceptance of Sinn Féin may come too late. Sinn Féin says it's ready to talk about forming a government... to everyone but the two major parties! "I want us to have a government for the people," said Sinn Fein leader Mary Lou McDonald. "I want us to have, ideally, a government with no Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael in it. I have started the contact with other parties to explore over the next days whether that is a possibility." Stay tuned.

Recommended viewing: Michael Collins, starring Liam Neeson, a mostly-true story about the struggle for the Irish Republic. Here's the trailer.



You can just fast forward past the love story part, with Julia Roberts in as horrible example of miscasting as I've ever seen. That aside, Michael Collins is a great movie about a great Irishman.

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