Walt admits to being not a little dismayed by the results of the runoff in France's regional elections, this past Sunday. Only a week before, I rejoiced -- a bit prematurely perhaps -- in the standings after the first round, which showed Marine Le Pen's Front National topping the polls, with as much as 40% of the popular vote. The remainder was split between the President François Hollande's socialists and the centre-right(ish) Union de la Droite, led by former president Nicolas Sarkozy.
Under the French system, where no-one gets a majority (50% + 1) in the first round of voting, another round is held, dropping off lesser candidates, until someone emerges a clear (majority) winner. It was widely believed -- or hoped, in some quarters including this one -- that Mme Le Pen had a good chance of winning the run-off in Nord-Pas-de-Calais-Picardie, her region in the northeast of France, as did her niece Marion Maréchal-Le Pen, who had won the first round in the southeastern region of Provence-Alpes-Côte d’Azur.
Alas, it was not to be. What happened, in a nutshell, was that the socialists tanked, going so far as to actually withdraw their candidates in Mme Le Pen's region, telling their adherents to vote for the Union to stop the Front. Simple... and stupid... as that. So, the FN was defeated in all six regions where it had led the polls in the first round, and France is safe for democracy and multiculturalism. For now.
Let me draw an analogy here. Suppose Hellery Clinton gets the Democratic nomination -- hardly a long shot -- and Jeb beats out the Donald for the GOP nod, leaving Mr Trump to run as an Independent. And suppose Mr. Trump finishes first, with 40% of the vote, with Bush III second and Mrs. Bill third. What happened in France is like unto what would happen in the USA if there were a second round of voting and Queen Hillary told all the Democrats to get behind Jeb to stop Trump (thus to keep America democratic if not Democratic, etc). Got it?
For the French, there's always 2017, when it will be time once again for a presidential election. It may well come down to Hollande vs Sarkozy vs Le Pen. Then we'll see.
As long as we're supposing things about France, here's a thought. What if, by the time 2017 rolls around, enough Islamists are French citizens (or vice versa) that they can make or break one of the candidates. Maybe they could even form their own party and, supported by all those who denounce racism and celebrate diversity, win the election.
An Islamist government in France! What would that be like? In "What if the Islamists took France?", the National Post's Ian Hunter writes about Michel Houellebecq’s novel Submission, set in France in 2022 (the year of the next presidential election after that of 2017). "The message I took from the novel Submission", he says, "is that it is already too late. Western civilization has lost its core beliefs, and its will to survive."
Hm. Maybe Submission should be on Walt's required reading list. Or maybe not. After all, it's possible to imagine an Islamist takeover of France, but not, surely, Britain... or Canada... or the United States of America.
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