That's what Walt would like to know. I'm waiting for first- or even second-hand reports from Agents 78 and/or 88 to get behind the video clips on the TV news. Via satellite, I've been able to see clips aired on Hong Kong's TVB, showing large, angry demonstrations in the streets of Shenzhen, Beijing and Shanghai. One report says there was trouble in no fewer than 28 cities.
The ostensible target of the protests is Japan, which this past week purchased a couple of small islands to which China (and Taiwan) lay claim. The islands themselves are just dots of rock, but the sea around them is full of fish, and beneath the ocean floor there may be quantities of... you guessed it... oil.
So... 1000s of young people are protesting Japanese imperialism by throwing rocks at Japanese consulates, businesses... even Japanese cars. Walt [whose Putong'hua is severely limited. Ed.] was able to understand yells of "war" and "now". Is the Beijing government likely to declare war on Japan, or even send a force of marines to take back the rocks? About two platoons should do it, but trust me, it's not gonna happen. (Lifetime pct .090)
Why, then, would the Communist government allow these near-riots? And trust me again, if the government didn't want the demonstrations to take place, they wouldn't. Remember Tiananmen Square!
Walt's guess is that the "spontaneous" demonstrations, which seem to include large numbers of printed banners and pictures of Chairman Mao, are being permitted, perhaps even fomented, to deflect attention from the strange disappearance and reappearance of Xi Jinping, the heir apparent to Hu Jintao, the outgoing paramount leader of the People's Republic of China. Or maybe not.
Mr. Xi was widely expected to be acclaimed as General Secretary of the Communist Party of China late this year. In due course he would also become President and Chairman of the Central Military Commission. When you wear all three hats, you indeed Da Man. It's like winning the Triple Crown.
But a funny thing happened on Xi's way to the throne. Around September 2nd, the presumptive emperor dropped out of sight, and remained so for about ten days, missing at least three scheduled public appearances. To the extent that the social media operate in China, tweets and twitters of "Where is She?" [That's how you say "Xi". Ed.] flashed across the land and around the world. But there was no answer until, like Lazarus, Xi emerged on Thursday, with no explanation or apology given.
Was Mr. Xi really suffering from a bad back, as was rumoured, or does he have a more severe health problem? Or is it his political health that's in question? Has there been a power struggle within the Forbidden City? The Chinese government no longer operates out of the ancient abode of the imperial court, but the metaphor is still valid.
And what will happen next? Will Xi succeed in succeeding? Or will he quietly step aside "for health reasons" in favour of... who? Or Hu? What does it all mean? To stop all those questions and rumours, perhaps a little diversion was thought to be in order...
Just one problem with that. When you let a tiger out of his cage, it's hard to predict what he will do, and harder still to get him back in the cage. The demonstrations I saw on the idiot's lantern today seem grossly disproportionate to the degree of bother the average Chinese would feel about two tiny islets being taken over by the Japanese.
The marchers seemed to be pelting the police and soldiers -- and there were 1000s of them too, armed with teargas and water cannon -- with abandon equal to that with which they attacked the Japanese buildings. I had the sense of a lot of pent-up anger and frustration being released. And I wonder when and where it will stop.
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