The Kim is dead! Long live the Kim?

So, farewell then, Kim Jong-il. In an early gift to political pundits around the world, North Korea's barking mad Dear Leader went to the Socialist Workers Paradise yesterday. The new emperor [Ed., please check] will be the teenaged [Ed., please check] Kim Jong-un. Mr. Kim is shown here reacting to news of his father's demise.

The "Great Successor" -- Kim's new title -- is apparently delighted that it's now his turn to play with the trains and wooden soldiers. However, North Koreans, and the country’s neighbours, are apprehensive.

Once all the forced and melodramatic mourning for Kim Jong-il is over, the challenge that will come fast for the younger Mr. Kim. How will he explain the next big failure to a people desperate to see their lives improve? In a country where propaganda is truth, the regime Kim Jong-un now leads needs either some proof that the country is indeed strong and prosperous, or someone to blame for falling so far short.

It’s easier to fire blame [rockets, surely. Ed.] towards South Korea, Japan and the United States than to reform the broken system your father and grandfather built. And provoking a military crisis might help Kim Jong-un convince his father’s generals that he is the right person to lead them.

Or maybe not. Walt offers 3-2 that there will be a violent upheaval in North Korea -- call it a Korean spring roll -- by Christmas 2012. Place your bets at the usual place -- the barbershop around the corner and up your block. Lifetime pct .980.