Wednesday, October 30, 2019

Wot? Brexit ain't done yet? Walt explicates the muddification

The story so far... Way back in June 2016, the people of the so-called United Kingdom got a rare chance to vote on an issue, as opposed to for or against a political party. After years of dithering, the Conservative government of the day, led by the Rt. Hon. David Cameron, called a referendum on whether or not the country should remain in the European Union. This was the result.

Instead of "country", let's say countries. London, the capital region (and (((international banking))) centre) voted to stay in the EU. So did Scotland and Northern Ireland.

The rest of England and Wales voted to take back control of Britain's affairs (particularly her borders) from the globalist Euro-weenies. Since there were more non-London English voters than all the others combined, the overall result was nearly 52% in favour of what became known as Brexit.

The first lesson the British people learned -- should have known already -- is that the people don't actually rule or govern anything. The ruling is done by governments, not the people wot put them there. So it fell to the government of Theresa May (who succeeded Mr Cameron, who had unwisely campaigned on the "remain" side) to make a deal with the other 27 (or so) members of the EU to put the borders back in place and disentangle the great ball of red tape devised by the Brussels sprouts.

A coalition of one-worlders, loony lefties and minor parties clamoured for a do-over of the referendum, and generally obstructed Ms May's efforts, so she called a snap general election in June 2017. It resulted in a Conservative minority government supported by the Ulster Protestant baskets who call themselves the Democratic Unionist Party.

Subsequent UK–EU withdrawal negotiations resulted in a withdrawal agreement in November 2018, but the UK parliament voted against ratifying it three (count `em, three) times. The Labour Party wanted any agreement to maintain a customs union, while many Conservatives opposed the agreement's financial settlement on the UK's share of EU financial obligations, as well as the "Irish backstop" designed to prevent border controls between Ulster and the Republic of Ireland.

Ed. here. I don't understand that last bit. You mean the Protestant Ulstermen refuse to be part of Catholic Ireland, but they don't want a hard border between the two parts of the island? Exactly.

In March 2019, the UK parliament voted for May to ask the EU to delay Brexit until October 31st, so a better deal could be sought. Having failed to pass her agreement, Ms May resigned as prime minister in July and was succeeded by the Rt. Hon. Boris Johnson. He sought to replace parts of the agreement and vowed to leave the EU by the new deadline, with or without an agreement. On October 17th, his government and the EU agreed on a revised withdrawal plan, with provisions for a special status for Northern Ireland. The British parliament approved the new agreement, but rejected plans to pass it into law before the Hallowe'en deadline, and forcing Mr Johnson's government to ask for a third Brexit delay, to 31 January 2019.

So everything's fine now, right? Ed. Errr, no. Having suffered a couple of defections along the way, Mr Johnson heads a minority government, dependent on the support of the DUP. With no guarantee that the enabling legislation will be passed by March 31st... or ever... Mr Johnson wanted an election to put an end to the uncertainty, one way or the other. The head of the Labour Party, Jeremy Lenin [Corby, shurely. Ed.] refused, but on Tuesday did a flip-flop and directed his members to join the Tories in approving an early election to break the deadlock. Brits will go to the polls on December 12th. Merry Christmas! [Happy Holidays!, shurely. Ed.]

Brexit has turned into a tussle for the soul of the country, and will be the main issue on which weary voters will have to decide. Mr Johnson's Conservatives tout his deal with the EU and claim they can get Brexit done at last, while Comrade Corbyn's Labourites are promising to negotiate a "softer" Brexit, following which they will give the British public the final say by... wait for it... holding a second referendum!

Will this vote break the Brexit deadlock? Who knows? [Certainly not you! Ed.] The rise of smaller parties means the possibility of a hung parliament is greater now than in previous decades. If the December election fails to deliver a party with an overall majority, Brexit could go in a number of different directions. A hung parliament with a minority Conservative government would likely mean more of the same paralysis that has dogged British politics for the past year. If Labour emerges as the largest party, that makes a second Brexit referendum more likely, given that's also the ambition of the Liberal Democrats and the Scottish National Party.

And even if the Conservatives won a majority on the back of their promise to "get Brexit done," the saga won't be over. Mr Johnson would be able to get his deal through Parliament by the next deadline, but that's only the start. Months of negotiations with the EU about a future trading partnership would certainly follow, and the risk of a no-deal Brexit could return all over again if a trade deal isn't concluded by the end of the Brexit transition period in 2020. So while this vote will likely set a new Brexit course for Britain, it would be naive to think the issue will be off the agenda by the beginning of 2020. We wish all our British readers a Happy New Year!

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