Public opinion polls (which Americans know are always reliable) show Justin Trudeau's Gliberals in a virtual dead heat with Andrew Scheer's Cuckservatives, each with just under 32% support. In Canada, as in the USA, having more votes than the other guy doesn't guarantee that you'll become head of state. What counts is how many seats your party wins in the 338-seat House of Commons.
If the polls are accurate [as they always are in the USA. Ed.], neither of the two main parties can hope for a majority. Today's morning line has the Liberals emerging with 4 to 8 more seats than the Tories. But suppose it's the other way `round. Will Mr Socks resign and hand the reins of power over to Mr Bland? Time for The King-Byng Thing, a lesson in Canadian history and constitutional law from Agent 3.
The man on the left was a King. The man on the right was a Lord. Julian Hedworth George Byng came from a noble English family, and commanded the Canadian Corps of the British Army at Vimy Ridge, in World War I. The Canucks won the battle but Byng won the honours, becoming the 1st Viscount Byng of Vimy. In 1921 he was sent to Canada to become the country's Governor-General, the representative of King George V.
William Lyon Mackenzie King (not "king" as in sovereign) was Prime Minister of Canada for most of the period from 1921 to 1948. He lost his grip on power, though, in a general election in the fall of 1925. Then, as may be the case now, no party got a majority of the seats in the House of Commons. Mr King's Liberals came second, a few seats behind the Conservatives. But (and this is where the constitutional point comes in), Mr King was the incumbent Prime Minister, and as such felt he had the right to meet the House and seek its confidence.
Lord Byng thought the Conservatives should have been called on to form the government, since they had more seats, but acceded to Mr King's request on condition that if the Liberals lost the vote of confidence, Mr King would not seek a dissolution of Parliament and a new election. Sure enough, the government fell and "Mackenzie King" went back to Lord Byng to ask that the election writ be dropped. Lord Byng refused and, in 1926, called on the Conservatives to form a government. They did, and almost immediately lost the next vote of confidence. Whereupon a new election was called, which the King Liberals won.
Lord Byne was duly recalled and a new Governor-General placed on the vice-regal throne. Upon returning to power, Mr King's government sought at an imperial conference to redefine the role of the Governor-General as a personal representative of the sovereign in his Canadian council and not of the British government (the king in his British council). The change was agreed to at the Imperial Conference of 1926 and came to be official as a result of the Balfour Declaration of 1926 and Statute of Westminster 1931.
It is therefore settled that the Governor-General of Canada may not refuse a request of the Prime Minister. The last time that possibility was raised, when Prime Minister Harper sought to prorogue Parliament to avoid a vote of confidence, Mr Harpoon threatened to go directly to the Queen to get what he wanted. It wasn't necessary, as the G-G caved.
What that means for Canadians is that even if, on Monday, Just In Trudeau's Liberals elect fewer Members of Parliament than Andrew Scheer's Conservatives, M Trudeau can make a good case for remaining in office. He could meet the House and, with the support of the socialist NDP and/or the separatist Bloc Québécois, could continue his misrule until such time as enough MPs desert him.
It is true, as Mr Scheer says, that no Prime Minister has done that in modern times. The convention for the last half-century or so is that a Prime Minister whose party finishes with fewer seats than another party should resign, and that the Governor-General should then call on the leader of that other party to form the government. It doesn't matter that the other party didn't get a majority of the seats. A plurality would do. So it will be up to M Trudeau, if he loses, to the right thing. But will he? Stay tuned.
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