Can you say "stalemate", boys 'n' girls?

Call me a traitor if you like, but it has to be said that the US of A has form for starting wars which it can't finish. Before Afghanistan, Iraq and Vietnam we can point all the way back to the War of 1812, which then POTUS James Madison said would be "only a matter of marching", all over in a month or so. Does this sound familiar?

Since the outcome of the War of 1812 is barely mentioned in US schools nowadays, let us review how Madison's little excursion turned out. There was fighting, mostly on the Canadian (British, in those days) side of the Great Lakes. The Royal Navy attacked and burned the American capital, causing Dolly Madison to pack up her dishes and flee the White House. The Americans won the final battle (New Orleans) nearly a month after a truce had been agreed. The borders of the US of A remained as they had been ante bellum. Much treasure and blood was expended, but nothing was gained.

Walt predicts a similar outcome for the American-Israeli war on Iran. 

Again, call me a traitor if you like, but I don't see a lot of winning going on here! The Israelis are said to have invaded Lebanon, but that's a sideshow. The Big Show is Iran. The mission (so far as we can understand it) is to (a) terminate the Chief Mullah and so (b) to effect the overthrow of the Islamist theocracy, while also (c) ensuring that Iran would never have nuclear weapons and (d) the supply of Big Oil would be secure forever more, Or (e) all of the above.

Three weeks in, after the loss of dozens of American lives and expenditure of many millions of dollars, as nearly as Walt can see, only (a) has been accomplished. So what? The same gang of mullahs may be hiding behind a cardboard cutout of the Son-of-the-Mullah, but they're still in control. A few oil tankers are getting through the Strait of Hormuz, but the US is clearly incapable of keeping that channel oopen to the point where President Trump is almost screaming "A little help here!?!?" at America's fair weather friends.

I can't see any favourable outcome to this conflict. POTUS says it'll be over when he thinks it's over, but when will that be? Seems to me the stage is being set for a declaration of victory and a "withdrawal" under cover of a cease-fire which will be touted as a Big Win, just like that over Hamas a few months ago.

Many Americans have been killed. US military bases in the Gulf are burning. America's so-called allies are running for diplomatic cover. The only "winning" is being done by the Israelis, who are finishing what they couldn't do in 1967. Clearly the US of A has lost control of a war that will not end until Iran says so. 

Any realist has to call the situation a strategic stalemate, with intense air campaigns failing to force capitulation or halt Iranian retaliations. While initial strikes damaged infrastructure, Iran has continued targeting energy routes in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a protracted conflict with no clear endgame. Iran has successfully targeted global energy security, creating a protracted war.

The stalemate is causing major global disruptions, with oil prices rising over $100/bbl and increasing economic uncertainty in other regions, notes. It's hard to see how this ends except in a "draw" where both sides declare victory, or settle into a low-level, long-term confrontation that could reshape the region. Or not.

I would dearly love to be wrong. I would like to see the people of Iran liberated from the yoke of Islamist oppression. I have similar hopes for the people of Venezuela and (even more so) the people of Cuba. But we're not there yet... are we...

Checking Maduro's phone messages

New loony leftist flavour of the month

Next! The island prison that is Cuba

We are less interested in the capture of the dictator Nicolás Maduro and the probable (but not certain!) overthrow of his socialist régime than in what that portends for the future of the even worse dictatorship of Cuba.

Agent 10 says it is well known that Cuba has been propping up the failing Maduro régime for years, and has sent military aid to Venezuela, including elite troops to serve as bodyguards to Sr Maduro.

Yesterday, Cuba's Communist Castro regime decreed a two-day period of mourning to honour 32 minions of the Cuban military allegedly killed during the American law enforcement action that resulted in the capture the socialist dictator.

The figurehead "president" of Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel claimed that the Cuban soldiers were "helping" protect Sr Maduro and his wife Cilia Flores. 

For decades, the Castro regime has had a significant influence in Venezuela under the auspices of Nicolás Maduro and his predecessor, Hugo Chávez. Numerous reports published over the years revealed how the Castro regime aided its fellow ideological ally to reshape Venezuela’s security and intelligence services to implement a brutally repressive apparatus.

Fidel Castro also stole American companies, not to mention the businesses that the Communists appropriated from fellow Cuban citizens who were never compensated, many of whom are now American citizens. There are many good reasons for taking back what the Cuban Communists stole, and terminating the Communist system of theft, terror, and enslavement forever on the Island Prison of Cuba.

President Donald Trump referred to Cuban casualties in remarks given to the New York Post over the weekend, but reportedly said he did not know the precise death toll among Cuban and Venezuelan forces. 

"Cuba was always very reliant on Venezuela. That’s where they got their money, and they protected Venezuela, but that didn’t work out too well in this case," POTUS the Post. "You know, many Cubans lost their lives last night. Did you know that? Many Cubans lost their lives. They were protecting Maduro. That was not a good move."

In a comment made while aboard Air Force One, President Trump added that he doesn't think the US will have to do anything to bring about the downfall of Cuba's Communist régime because "it's already falling apart." Walt's comment: Maybe so, but it would be better to speed up the process!

The Curse of Walt - first strike of 2026! FAFO!

In "Walt's predictions for 2026" (WWW 31/12/25), I wrote, "Venezuelan President Maduros will be out of office by this time next year." And, as surely as the day followeth the night...

The military forces of the United States of America have captured Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro and his wife and launched a "large-scale" strike against the country. 

US Attorney General Pam Bondi says the leftist dictator has been indicted in New York on drugs and weapons charges and will "face the full wrath of American justice on American soil in American courts," 

Secretary of State Marco Rubio is said to anticipate no further action against Venezuela. However, Venezuela has declared a national emergency, denouncing "military aggression". 

This is a breaking story. Dare we hope that Cuba will be next?! Follow Walt for more winning! Lifetime pct 989.

Panic in Gotham as socialist Muslim wins Dem primary for Mayor

Cazart! The BSDs of Wall Street and the denizens of Crown Heights, Borough Park and Williamsburg are in full panic mode -- "Can you get me on a flight to Miami Beach, today?!" -- after Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani's shock victory over the former governor Andrew Cuomo to become the presumptive Dimocratic nominee for mayor of the Wormy Apple.

Mr Mamdani, a 33-year-old democratic socialist, and a devout follower of the Prophet, ran on a platform that has terrified some in the business and certain religious communities. Their idea of an acceptable leftist candidate was someone like (((Bernie Sanders))). But this? Oy, oy, oy!

Mr Mamdani wants to raise corporate taxes to 11.5% and add a 2% income tax on New Yorkers making more than $1 million. He has said he would make the city more affordable by freezing rents on rent-stabilized apartments, investing $70 billion in publicly subsidized housing for the flotsam and jetsam who wind up in the "sanctuary city", providing free bus service and opening government-operated grocery stores -- the kind they used to have in the Soviet Union where you had to bribe someone to get a six-month old turnip.

Wall Street quickly started to worry.Some financial executives spoke of backing Mayor Eric Adams, clearly the lesser of the two weevils. Corporate leaders held a flurry of private phone calls to plot how to fight back against Mr Mamdani's primary victory and discussed backing an outside group with the goal of raising around $20 million to oppose him. Dan Loeb, chief executive of hedge fund Third Point, and a major Cuomo backer, wrote on X, "It’s officially hot commie summer."

Yeah. And if Mr Mamdani wins the mayoralty, what happens next? The real insane voters of New York may think that he, being an oppressed person like them -- all Muslims are oppressed, you know -- will bring them equity, justice and freedom in a socialist workers' paradise. LMAO. 

Those who can read would do well to check out "All socialism involves slavery" (WWW 14/6/25), in which we posted a quote from Left Luggage, by C. Northcote Parkinson, author of the eponymous Law, on the motivation and actions of today's leftists. 

They came to realize...that the lower classes cannot be resued from the slum unless they will do as they are told. This, they came to see, is a basic principle of existence. 

You cannot help an old woman to cross a busy street unless she will accept your guidance. The very act of going to the rescue makes you superior to the person rescued. And just as folk in danger must obey the orders of the lifeboatman or fireman, the victims of the industrial slum must follow the social reformer's advice. 

That they are incapable of saving themselves is the most obvious result of their ill-treatment. Kindly but firmly they must be shows the way to escape. A better environment can be theirs but only if they will obey orders. It is this kindly coercion that has come to be known as Socialism. [My emphasis. Walt]

Shortly after that post appeared, Agent 3 was on the horn to tell us that socialism also involves poverty. As surely as day follows night (he said), the socialists achieve "equity" not by raising the standard of living of the masses, but by reducing everyone to the same level of bare subsistence. Like this.

Walt has dear friends, refugees from Cuba, who remember how the Marxist Castros plunged their country into dire poverty. The voters of New York City, many of whom are Americans [geddit? Ed.] and therefore ignorant of the realities of places like Cuba and Venezuela, must think that Islamic socialism would somehow be better than the Latin American variety. If so, they are wrong.

"Don't buy Canadian!" Brandon likes oil from Iran, Venezuela better

Sleepy Joe Brandon had a rare moment of lucidity this week, when he seemed to acknowledge that the Excited States of America is not self-sufficient in oil any more. Running on fumes, it is! 

That nasty non-renewable gasoline is up to $5-7 at the pumps, and trending upward. Bad news for American motorists, including Freedom Truckers. And not just for them, but for anyone who wishes to travel anywhere by road, rail or air. 

Of course there are alternatives, like this. 

Yep, just throw another log (or bag of wood chips) into the old gas generator there, and you're good to go. If you think you can't burn gas from wood. let me ask: have you had your fireplace chimney cleaned out lately? But you're gonna need a helluva lot of wood, and the rig isn't very aerodynamic, probably kinda slow.

So what else? How about EVs? You can run cars, trucks, buses and trains on electricity, right? Not airplanes though. The cost of the extension cord would be a killer. But where does the electricity [That's "hydro", for our readers in Canuckstan. Ed.] come from? Well, you have these big power plants than run on, errr... 

Let's be practical then. America needs more oil! So if we can't produce enough in the US of A, we'll have to buy some from other countries. Like Russia, from which the US of A imported 709,000 barrels of crude and petroleum products per day, last year.

Errr, can't do that now. Even the ultra-woke Canadians stopped doing that, in response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. On Tuesday, the Biden-Harris maladministration followed Canada' lead and banned petroleum imports from Russia. Now Sleepy Joe is forced to go, cap in hand, to other "friendly" countries who have oil for sale. Like Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

The oiligarchs [Very clever! Ed.] of the Muddle East have the capacity to ramp up production, but Brandon trash-talked them during the 2020 fake election campaign. He referred to Saudi Arabia as a "pariah" state and said that its government has "very little social redeeming value." True enough, but not reason enough to stop buying their oil, eh, Joe?

But there's a bigger bump in the road. The Saudis and Emiratis have their keffiyehs in a twist over Crazy Joe's lack of support for their own brutal interventions in Yemen, where the two countries are fighting a proxy war against Iran. 

There's also the little matter of Brandon's push to restart the Iran nuclear agreement. As a result, the Wall Street Journal reported this week that the leaders of both countries have ghosted Brandon and are refusing to take his calls. The unintended consequence could well be  the lifting of American sanctions on Iran, which has tens of millions of barrels of oil sitting in tankers for immediate delivery. And there's even more where that came from! Cheap!

Of course buying from the mad mullahs would be supporting the world's exporter of Islamic terrorism, a theocracy which has threated to wipe the "Zionist entity" (Israel) off the map, and needs only that the Paranoid States of America look the other way while it develops the nuclear weapons so to do.

Lucky for Brandon that there's another source, closer to home. Last weekend he sent a delegation to Caracas to discuss easing the American sanctions on Venezuelan oil, which were the proximate cause of America's increasing dependence on Russian oil. Talk about things not quite working out!

Meanwhile, Sleepy Joe still points with pride at his Day One decision to kill the Keystone XL pipeline, approved by President Trump, which would have allowed the importation of millions of barrels per day of Canadian crude oil, direct to American refineries. It's cheap, too. Just turn on the tap. 

But nooo... buying oil from Canuckistan wouldn't play well with Democratic eco-wienies like Michigan's Democratic governor Karen Whitmer [Isn't that "Gretchen"? Ed.]. She has her own anti-oil campaign going against Enbridge's Line 5, which supplies 65% of propane demand in the Upper Peninsula, and 55% of Michigan's statewide propane needs. Her effort to close it down is now before the courts. Guess whose side Brandon is on.

The liberal governments of both the USA and Canada have scared away investors by consistently blocking proposed pipelines and LNG export terminals, which could now be supplying America with all the oil and gas it needs.

If the wokesters and eco-wienies in Washington and Ottawa simply got out of the way and allowed decisions over pipelines and other infrastructure projects to be made by private businesses and landowners, the oil and gas would be flowing to where it's needed as we speak. And you'd be able to fill up your gas tank for two bucks a gallon... or less. Think about that while you walk to work!