Whither Trump? Whither the GOP? Cloudy, the vision is

Breitbart News reports that, in a hypothetical 2024 GOP primary matchup, President Trump trounces all his potential Republican challengers, according to Politico/Morning Consult survey released this week.

The survey asked respondents who they would support in the 2024 Republican presidential primary if it were held today. As in previous hypothetical GOP primary polls, Mr Trump wins handily, the choice of  47% of respondents. No other candidate came close, as both former Vice President Mike Pence and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) tied at 12%. 

If, like Walt, you're a fan of The Donald, that's the good news. The not-so-good news is that the same the survey asked all respondents of all parties what role they believe Mr Trump should play in the Republican Party. 47% said he should no longer play any role! 31% said he should play a "major" role, and 12% said he should play a "minor" role. 

Half of all the voters surveyed -- that includes both Democrats and Republicans, remember -- said he should not run for president in 2024, while a quarter said he "definitely" should and ten percent say he "probably" should. 

One might be tempted to discount the opinions of the Democrats, but keep in mind that they vote too. And many of the Dems responding to the survey may well be thoroughly disenchanted with Sleepy Joe, yet unwilling to bring back "Number 45". So the results of the poll are not all that positive.

What, I wonder, will President Trump do? He hasn't announced his intentions for 2024, but speculation has continued to mount. Speaking to Sean Hannity over the summer, Mr Trump hinted that he already made a decision. And as one rally follows another, one might think -- and his enemies might fear! -- that he's going to go for it.

But we can't be sure. Consider the weird signal that he sent this week by threatening a Republican boycott of the next two elections (the 2022 mid-terms and the 2024 presidential election) unless the "Presidential Election Fraud of 2020" is resolved. 

The former president made the threat in a two-sentence statement posted on his website: "If we don't solve the Presidential Election Fraud of 2020 (which we have thoroughly and conclusively documented), Republicans will not be voting in '22 or '24." 

Seriously? Does Mr Trump not realize that the consequences of boycotting the elections would be to hand America over to the Democrats, undisputably and forever? Does he think the elections would not be held if Republicans said they won't vote? Seriously?

Perhaps The Donald didn't read "How an election was stolen", WWW 4/11/20. I was talking about the totally fraudulent presidential election in Zimbabwe in 2008. That post , I told how that country's ruling ZANU-PF party stopped the vote count when it appeared that the president, Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, might lose. When the results were announced several days later, lo and behold, Uncle Bob had the most votes, but not quite 50%, so a run-off election was necessary.

At that point, Morgan Tsvangirai, the opposition candidate, announced that his party would boycott the run-off election. Why? Because he feared that his supporters would be the targets of government-sponsored violence. This was not an unreasoning fear. Several members of his party were abducted, tortured and even murdered in the run-up to the first election.

The result of the opposition boycott was exactly what you would expect. The run-off went ahead, with President Mugabe as the only actively participating candidate, although Mr Tsvangirai's name remained on the ballot. Comrade Bob won the second round by an overwhelming margin -- 85.3% to 9.3% -- and was sworn in for another term on 29 June 2008. He remained President until November of 2017, when, at the age of 93, he was ousted by his own party in a bloodless coup.

That, dear reader, is what Mr Trump should expect if Republicans boycott the 2022 and 2024 elections. If you're a Republican (or anyone else who thinks America can't afford even two more years of Dumbocrat misgovernment) and in a position to draw Mr Trump's attention to this lesson from history, I suggest you do so immediately! And tell him Walt sent ya....

Weird reactions to FBI's Clinton e-mails bombshell

I've got two TVs on and six tabs open on my Internet monitor, flipping around, checking out what the boys (and girls) on the buses and in the "newsrooms" are saying about James Comey's announcement that the FBI is going to reopen the investigation into Shrillery's e-mails. Donald Trump and his supporters are predictably delighted. Mrs Bill Clinton and hers...not so much.

La Clinton's plane sat on the tarmac on arrival at Cedar Rapids IA for half an hour before the front door open and She Who Would Be President came down the airstairs. Questions were shouted at her about the bombshell announcement. Answer came there none. Does that mean that after half an hour or more of thinking, her handlers couldn't think of anything to say? Errr, no. The official excuse is that the plane didn't have wi-fi so they hadn't heard anything about it. Really.

Hellery's running mate [Ed, please insert name here.] said that he needed time to read before he could say anything. What, Walt would like to know, is he going to read? The e-mails?! That would be pretty difficult since, John Podesta says, his team doesn't know what the FBI has, wherefore they hope the FBI will reveal the details so we can all see that there's really nothing there. Yeah, right.

Is this going to make any difference to people's voting intentions, hence to the outcome of the election? One "analyst" for a lamestream TV network said he thought not. Why? Because Mrs Clinton is far ahead in the polls, and millions of Americans have already voted and can't take back their votes, so the issue has already been decided! How's that for unbiased reporting?

Paul Ryan said Crooked Hillary is the author of her own misfortune. And so she is. What Mr Ryan didn't say (but ought to be thinking) is that if The Donald wins, he and all the other rats who deserted the Good Ship GOP will almost certainly turn out to be the authors of their own misfortune. If I were Messrs Ryan, McCain et al., I would issue a statement, right sharpish, saying that much as I was disgusted by Mr Trump's youthful indiscretions, I cannot countenance the election of someone -- Clinton -- whose presidency would be irredeemably tainted right from the get-go. It's my duty as a patriotic American (I would say) to vote for the lesser of the two weevils.

Looks like the next ten days should be lots of fun. I admit I didn't see this coming. (Lifetime pct .992)

VIDEO: Republican voters: WATCH "Fahrenheit 9/11"!

I see by the meeja that George W. Bush has given a ringing endorsement to his "big little brother", "JEB!". I wonder what brilliant backroom boy thought having Dubya speak up for his brother would boost the Shrub's chances of becoming the Republican candidate for the Presidensity, or at least getting the GOP Establishment to coalesce behind him so as to deny the nomination to a real (?) conservative. [Who did you mean by that? Ed.]

I'm guessing the strategy is to position JEB! as the agent of continuity -- the one who will carry on the good works started by his brother and his father before him. Whether this is such a good idea at a time when most Americans, regardless of party affiliation, hunger for change remains to be seen. To any Republicans -- in South Carolina, let's say -- who think that more Bush-league government might not be such a bad thing, Walt recommends Fahrenheit 9/11, Michael Moore's critical look at the presidency of George W. Bush, the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and the War on Terror. The film is the highest grossing documentary of all time, and we have it for you, via YouTube, right here!

But first (as they say), IMDb's summary of what Fahrenheit 9/11 is all about. "Film-maker Michael Moore provides deep and though-provoking insights on the American security system, the level of paranoia, fear, uncertainty, false values and patriotism, which all combined together to set a stage for George W. Bush to launch a war on Iraq instead of focusing on getting the real culprit(s) behind the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001.

"This documentary also focuses on how some Saudis were safely and secretly flown out of America while planes were ostensibly grounded after the attacks. Archived film footage, candid interviews with politicians, and an overall waste of public funds for a war that was initiated on false pretension to wit: a weapon of mass distraction - to take the focus away from the real enemy and get Americans glued to their TV sets to watch innocent Iraqis and Afghans getting killed. And a war that would eventually alienate the USA and its citizens from almost every country on Earth."



Yes, JEB! is in the pro-Saudi "War on Americans" right up to his neck. He makes his first appearance in the film at about the 2-minute mark. As for the Bush family's connections to the houses of Saud and bin Laden -- not to mention Big Oil, Halliburton, etc etc -- anyone who thinks that connection ended with that expiry of Dubya's term needs his/her head read. Hey, Republican voter! Do you really want more of this?!

Walt explains why Americans like The Donald

Walt loves watching the liberal lamestream meeja explain to Americans why they're all wrong in supporting Donald Trump's bid for the presidensity. One of the more ridiculous analyses I've seen was that of the CBC's Neil Macdonald, who opines that Americans "don't take people like Donald Trump seriously" and are enjoying the spectacle purely for the entertainment value. Wrong, Neil! Wrong!!!

A better view is taken by Lexington, the Economist's observer of things American. In "El Donald", he (or she) says "What is clear is that he will not win the Republican presidential nomination.... America’s two-party system offers him a bleaker choice: to stay on and heckle in the primaries or to play wrecker as a third-party candidate. Yet the Trump slump, when it happens, will not spell the end of the forces that have propelled him so far. Anti-politics rage is buffeting rich democracies across the world, and America is not immune to it." [Walt's emphasis.]

IMHO, Lexington has put his (or her) finger on the root of Mr. Trump's popularity. While the likes of Mr. Macdonald are already writing obituaries for his "The America We Deserve" campaign, a CNN/ORD national survey (conducted after The Donald's nasty remarks about John McCain) showed Mr. Trump leading the GOP pack, with the support of 18% of Republicans. "Jeb" Noname had 15% and Scott Walker 10%.

Mr. Trump's star is rising, and shows no signs of falling before next month's debate of the top ten contenders. Why is this?

Part of it is The Donald's reputation for business acumen. "I'm a smart guy," he tells us. "I went to Wharton Business School." The second statement is true. As for the first, Mr. Trump has had some spectacular business successes. He's had a few colossal failures too, but anyone who can boast that he could finance his own multimillion-dollar campaign if he wanted to is clearly no slouch at managing the elusive sponduliks. And, according to the same CNN poll, 44% of Republicans think healing the economy is the ballot issue for the next election.

Then there's the celebrity factor. For decades now, Mr. Trump has been plastering his name on everything he touches, from New York towers to California golf courses to airplane tailfins. Walt even flew on the Trump Shuttle, back in the day. Leatherette seats in coach - for decades. He was the star of his own "reality" television show, and his catchphrase -- "you're fired" -- is a commonplace of American dialogue. [You're fired! Ed.]

Mr. Trump has name and face (read: hair) recognition up the yingyang. A recent Gallup poll puts his name ID among Republicans at 92%. But who's John Kasich? Who's Bobby Jindal? Who's... that other guy?
The Trump name demands media coverage (even if it's just in the Entertainment section), which boosts his poll numbers and leads to more media coverage.

We turn now to the Top Two Reasons for Donald Trump's lead in the polls.

His stance on illegal immigrants resonates with the majority of Republicans and, dare we say it, the majority of Americans. Lots of people who were born in the USA, or followed the rules to come in legally, are sick, sore and tire of being branded as racists and extremists. They see no reason to give the queue-jumpers a fast track to resident alien status, or amnesty of any kind. What they want, according to that CNN/ORC survey, is for them to be deported -- immediately if not sooner.

In "Revenge of the Radical Middle", Matthew Continetti, neocon editor of The Washington Free Beacon, writes: "It is immigration -— its universally celebrated benefits and its barely acknowledged costs -— that is the third rail of U.S. politics.... Trump didn’t step on the third rail; he embraced it, he won’t let go of it, and in so doing he’s become electric. Republicans, Democrats, journalists, corporations all want to define themselves against him, and their flaunting of their moral superiority only feeds the media monster, only makes Trump more attractive to the dispossessed, alienated, radical middle."

Which brings us to the undeniable fact that The Donald has become the spokesman for the silent majority. Mr. Continetti calls Trump supporters the "radical middle", who in years past embraced Ronald Reagan, Pat Buchanan and Newt Gingrich. Mr. Trump, you see, is not a conservative, or even a mainstream Republican. He is a populist, more akin to Ross Perot (another wealthy businessman who ranted about the Mexican threat) or George Wallace than to Messrs Gingrich and Reagan.

The voters to whom Mr. Trump appeals (continues Mr. Continetti) "don’t give a whit [Ed., please check spelling] about corporate tax reform or TPP or the capital gains rate or the fate of Uber, they make a distinction between deserved benefits like Social Security and Medicare and undeserved ones like welfare and food stamps, their patriotism is real and nationalistic and skeptical of foreign entanglement, they wept on 9/11, they want America to be strong, dominant, confident, the America of their youth, their young adulthood, the America of 40 or 30 or even 20 years ago.

"They do not speak in the cadences or dialect of New York or Washington, their thoughts can be garbled, easily dismissed, or impugned, they are not members of a designated victim group and thus lack moral standing in the eyes of the media, but still they deserve as much attention and sympathy as any of our fellow citizens, still they vote."

Speaking last week in South Carolina, Mr. Trump said, "There's a silent majority out there. We're tired of being pushed around, kicked around, and acting and being led by stupid people." To which Walt can only say, "Ain't it the truth!"

A dark(ish) horse who just might run

Quick! Who's more socially conservative than Jeb Bush, more of a defence hawk than Rand Paul and more sensible than Ted Cruz? (I'm quoting the Economist.)

Step forward, Bobby Jindal! Here near the headwaters, we're starting to hear more and more talk of the Louisiana Governor throwing his hat in the ring for the Republican nomination. Having more or less given up on the prospect of Ron Paul unretiring, Walt think Mr. Jindal an attractive candidate -- figuratively speaking -- perhaps not for the presidensity, but for the office which, pace John Nance Garner, is worth more than a bucket of spit. He would be a good running-mate for too-moderate Jeb Bush or -- dare we think it -- Paul the Younger. (Forget about Ted Cruz. There's no way a Canuck is ever going to get elected! Lifetime pct .991.)

5 things Walt likes about Bobby Jindal

He's a practising Catholic - a convert, in fact. He accuses Obama of "waging a silent war on religious freedom". He plans to repeal and replace Obamacare, and will surely remove the mandate to provide contraception and abortion on demand, no matter what your conscience tells you. That'll play well with conservative and traditional Catholics and evangelical Protestants, who tend to support the GOP.

He supports school choice - America's public schools are failing -- failing their students (by not failing enough students, geddit?) and failing the country. And Americans who disagree with the "progressive" secular humanist Common Core Curriculum are pulling their kids out of state schools by the 1000s, only to find that the CCC is still imposed on them by fiat of the almighty state. Free our schools and free our kids!

He's against spending, in favour of tax cuts - Who in his right mind doesn't agree? Well, the Prez and Hellery of course, but even sane Democrats know the USA can't go on mortgaging the future, as well as the present, to the Chinese. Unlike Greece, America doesn't have the EU or anyone else to provide a financial rescue package. If America goes broke, the world goes broke. End of story.

He advocates more skilled immigration, no amnesties for illegals - That's the way it should be. Mr. Jindal complains that the current "system" is "a low wall and a narrow gate", when it should be just the opposite. Even the liberal Canadians realize that and have recently reformed their rules to go back to a merit-based points system. And -- get this -- the Germans are looking to the Canadian model to revamp their system!

He calls Obama "unfit to be commander-in-chief" - because the Prez (unlike Canada's Dear Leader) can't bring himself to say that America is at war with radical Islam, because they are waging jihad against the West. Mr. Jindal thinks a c-i-c ought to stop pussy-footing around and show some determination to win! Like Ron Paul, Walt thinks we shouldn't be involved in the Middle East mess in the first place. But, like Jean Chrétien, Walt agrees that you can't be half-way in; either you're in or you're out.

Maybe that's more than five "things". Let's just call them five good reasons to hope that Bobby Jindal does well in the contest for the Republican nomination. His message needs to be heard, and -- let us pray -- acted upon.

Mitt meets a Republican

I trust The Economist will not mind my showing you the editorial cartoon from the current issue.
I wish I knew the name of the artist. He/she is technically very accomplished. And this comment strikes me as right on the romney. ["Money", surely! Ed.]

The rise of Ron Paul -- freedom is coming again!

"The freedom Ron Paul stands for is coming again. Sooner or later, it’s going to happen. What Ron Paul started is not going to go away. Republicans are in the midst of deciding what the GOP really is. He’s the only one standing on principles. And those principles are going to outlive Ron Paul. We’re going to make sure of it."

So said Leah Wolczko, 45, an unemployed schoolteacher from Manchester NH, quoted in the lamestream press this weekend. And that, according to the Washington Post's Charles Krauthammer, is Ron Paul's great achievement. "After a quarter-century in the wilderness, he’s within reach of putting his cherished cause on the map. Libertarianism will have gone from the fringes — those hopeless, pathetic third-party runs — to a position of prominence in a major party." [My emphasis. Walt]

"Mormon Mitt" Romney may have won New Hampshire, but (with the votes of Leah Wolczko and others) Congressman Paul was a good second, better than any of the so-called conservative, candidates. Why? The media portray him as radical, dangerous, crazy, beneath the notice of Washington insiders. But ordinary people like him. A lot!

That's because Ron Paul is the only presidential wannabe talking sense rather than the same old platitudes. Shrink the bloated federal government. End America's self-proclaimed role as the world’s policeman -- neither helpful nor affordable.

Add in Paul’s unbending opposition to the Police State Act [Patriot Act, surely! Ed.] and the war on drugs, all in the name of individual liberty, and you've got a big bowlful of electoral appeal.

Now, much to the consternation of pundits on the left and on the right, Mr. Paul’s world view is being welcomed into the conversation. Charles Krauthammer calls Paul’s undeniable momentum "a signal achievement, the biggest story yet of this presidential campaign."

Congressman Paul will never enter "the promised land" of the Oval Office, writes Krauthammer. But there can be no doubting that he has already done something which others (hello, Ross Perot!) found impossible. He has won mainstream recognition -- albeit grudging -- for his cherished libertarian ideals.

Quoting Krauthammer again: "I find him a principled, somewhat wacky, highly engaging eccentric. But regardless of my feelings or yours, the plain fact is that Paul is nurturing his movement toward visibility and legitimacy."

And conservative commentator Mark Steyn observes (in "Ron Paul beckons GOP to Fortress America") that the Texan’s clout is no longer in doubt. His foreign policy prescription may amount to "delusional" isolationism, Steyn writes, yet it is a view that is finding "more and more takers after a decade of expensive but inconclusive war.

"Too many of my friends on the right are demanding business as usual — the Pentagon’s way of doing things must continue in perpetuity. It cannot." [My emphasis, again. Walt]

Walt advises the GOP to take Ron Paul and his millions of supporters seriously. The libertarian voice must be heard. Mr. Paul should be a featured speaker at the Republican platform debate in August. He may be quirky and "out there" but he’s real! He's the little guy -- literally and figuratively -- the real guy in an otherwise fake roster of runners.

Paul to make third party run?

OK, so the Mormon candidate won New Hampshire. Hardly news. That Mr. Romney won both Iowa and New Hampshire, becoming the first ever non-incumbent Republican to do so, is news. It's beginning to look as if he has the GOP nomination locked up.

However... Even the lamestream media can't ignore the fact that Romney’s margin of victory was narrower than polls predicted on the weekend days ago. And, much to the pundits' consternation, Walt's choice, libertarian Congressman Ron Paul, showed startling strength, winning 23% of all votes cast. A better-than-expected second place showing. Much better than expected.

John Huntsman -- the latest conservative flash in the pan -- Rick Santorum and Not-so-New Gingrich finished down the track.

What does this mean? If I can find a rabid right-winger in the woods behind my cabin, I'll place an immodest wager on Romney to win the Republican nomination. Lifetime pct .982.

I'm also about ready to bet that Ron Paul, if he makes a respectable showing in South Carolina, will stand as presidential candidate for the Libertarian party, or some variant thereof with a new brand name. Like "Restore America Party". "RAP". That would be cool -- appealing to the college kids, who, by the way, turned out in NH in large numbers to vote for Ron.

Walt told you first!

Restore America Now!

Sorry to be a bit late posting this. You'd think Iowa, being in the centre of America -- make that the Heartland! -- would be pretty much covered by wi-fi, but it seems there are a few dead spots.

You've heard the news? The results of the Iowa straw poll are in, and it looks as if the GOP is tilting decidedly to the right! Right? You damn betcha! Michele Bachmann is today's winner. And in second place? Not Tim Pawlenty O'Nuttin, but the freedom lovers' choice, the tribune of the American majority...Ron Paul!

Mr. Paul, with a following among libertarian-leaning voters, wanted and got a surprisingly strong showing that might just convince Republicans he's more mainstream than not, hence more "electable".

The results of the nonbinding straw poll, held on the Iowa State University campus at Ames, came just hours after Texas Governor Rick Perry threw his nine-gallon hat in the race. Walt says you don't need the full ten gallons to take credit for an economy that looks pretty good only because the rest of the country is going into the tank. Don't look for many of Ron Paul's supporters to jump to a super-establishment candidate.

As for today's front-runner, let's wait and see what happens when -- not "if", but "when" -- Sarah Palin declares herself unable to resist the draft any longer. The GOP doesn't have room for two poster-girls, perhaps not even one. It's time the party, and the nation as a whole, voted for substance rather than image. It's high time.

PS - Just hedging our bets here... if what counts is putting a hottie out front (so to speak), the Paul campaign has it covered. How about this Iowa miss for running mate?!