How an election was stolen

The events in this true story took place not in the Excited States of America, but in the Land of Bambazonke, aka Zimbabwe, a southern Afican shithole where I lived and worked in the 1990s. I left Zimbabwe on the Flying Dutchman in 2001, but kept in touch with an ever-decreasing number of colleagues and friends, until they too left... or died.

The People's Republic of Zimbabwe had been ruled since its independence in 1980 by Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, a neo-Marxist anti-colonialist dictator who tolerated the presence of an opposition party so he could say his country wasn't a one-party state, although in fact it was.

Having an opposition means you have to have an election every now and then, just for show, and Uncle Bob decreed that his people should vote for him again in March 2008. Because of Zimbabwe's dire economic situation, the elections were expected to provide the incumbent and his ZANU-PF party with their toughest electoral challenge to date. 

The opposition Movement for Democratic Change, led by Morgan Tsvangirai, accused the government of planning to rig the election. Human Rights Watch said that the election was likely to be "deeply flawed", and so it was. As election night, March 29th, wore on, unofficial counts showed MDC-T building up big leads in the cities of Harare and Bulawayo, but the more populous rural areas were slow to report. In the wee hours of the morning of March 30th, counting was halted, with no explanation.

No official results were announced for more than a month thereafter. The failure to release results was strongly criticized by the MDC, which unsuccessfully sought a court order to force their release. After a recount and "verification" of the results, the government-controlled Zimbabwe Electoral Commission announced on May 2nd that Mr Tsvangirai won 47.9% of the vote and President Mugabe 43.2%, necessitating a run-off, to be held on 27 June 2008.

Political violence ensued, for which  ZANU-PF and MDC each blamed the other's supporters. On June 22nd, Mr Tsvangirai announced that he was withdrawing from the run-off, describing it as a "violent sham" and saying that his supporters risked being killed if they voted for him. The second round of elections went ahead with President Mugabe as the only actively participating candidate, although Mr Tsvangirai's name remained on the ballot. 

Comrade Bob won the second round by an overwhelming margin -- 85.3% to 9.3% -- and was sworn in for another term on 29 June 2008. He remained President until November of 2017, when, at the age of 93, he was ousted by his own party in a bloodless coup.

Any similarity between the events described above and last night's goings-on in Philthydelphia and Allegheny County PA and Atlants and Fulton County GA is purely coincidental.

Prof. Schwab explains African elections

Zimbabwe's capital Ha-ha-harare (the Fun Capital of Africa) was calm today, hours after the government-appointed Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC) declared Comrade Emmerson "ED" Mnangagwa winner of the presidential election held July 30th. See "ED wins Zimbabwe presidential election - quelle surprise!", WWW 2/8/18.

The voting itself was peaceful enough, but things got ugly when the ZEC delayed announcing the results of the presidential race for three days, while making sure that they got their numbers right, to avoid a repeat of the 2008 contest in which Comrade Bob Mugabe failed to win an outright victory on the first ballot. As reported here yesterday morning, six people were killed in the melee when the army rolled in tanks to disperse rock-throwing demonstrators who denounced "the Crocodile" and and alleged vote-rigging.

Harare's roads appeared to be free from the troops today, but water cannons and police remained present at the headquarters of the Movement for Democratic Change (the main opposition party), which police raided yesterday, making 18 arrests. Ed. has obtained for us a picture of the authorities announcing the results to obviously disappointed MDC Alliance leaders.

Opposition leader Nelson Chamisa, who received more than 44 per cent of the vote, said on Twitter that "unverified fake results" had been announced by the electoral commission. The ZEC "must release proper and verified results endorsed by parties," Mr Chamisa tweeted. "The level of opaqueness, truth deficiency, moral decay and values deficit is baffling."

Well, it's only baffling to those who expect an African election to bear some resemblance to an election in western democractice, like the US of A. [Eh? Ed.] By the sheerest coincidence, I just read Africa: A Continent Self-destructs (Palgrave, New York, 2001) by Professor Peter Schwab, of SUNY Purchase. Here's what the "authority on human rights" has to say about how the process works in the parts of Africa where they even bother to hold elections.

Within Africa, certainly, elections have taken place.... But elections are merely one indicator of the democratic process, and they are not worth very much if one leader, party, or group totally dominatees the system and if opponents are harassed, intimidated, often shot at, even arrested, and obligated to campaign fearing for their very lives. Sometimes they are even killed.

That's what happened in Zimbabwe in the presidential election of 2008, mentioned above. When early results on polling day put the MDC candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, ahead of Comrade Robert Mugabe, counting was stopped. Just stopped, that's all. More than a month later, the ZEC announced that Mr Tsvangirai won 47.9% of the vote to Uncle Bob's 43.2%, necessitating a run-off. Faced with the likelihood that his supporters would be the victims of the mayhem described by Prof Schwab, Mr Tsvangirai withdrew from the race, and the only ruler Zimbabwe had known since independence was "democratically re-elected".

Old Africa hands know the saying "MAWA" -- "Mother Africa Wins Again" -- and that's exactly what happened in Zimbabwe this week. End of lesson.

Footnote: I do not recommend Professor Schwab's book. The introductory and concluding chapters are nothing more than a rehash of the usual white liberal American apologies for the abject failure of black government. The way the prof tells it, the all-but-hopeless mess that African is in today, half a century after independence, is the result of centuries of slavery, colonialism and systemic racism, all the fault of the evil whites -- Europeans, not Americans, of course.

In between the first and last chapters is a potted history of the political and humanitarian disasters visited upon their people by the leaders of black Africa, "big men" like Comrades Mugabe and Mnangagwa. In the chapter headed "Civil Wars, Wars, and Political Collapse", Prof Schwab concedes (without once mentioning the race of "modern" Africa's leaders):

...it should be obvious that...western nations, and in particular the United States, would be foolhardy to jump into the bog that is currently Africa. [Yes, that's what he called it. Walt] Unless and until indigenous leadership arises that is intent and willing to put its nation's interests above personal aggrandizement, there is little that can be done to resolve the complex and bloody civil strife operative in so many African states....

In the final analysis, it is up to Africa and Africans to finally take the initiative to fix what is broken and to address the problems confronting their respective states. These are clearly not nations where there is public loyalty to established politically legitimate institutions.... There are many cultures, many loyalties, and few national structures that are not riddled with graft and at the mercy of wanton leaders. No conspicuous anchor is available to tie the ship of state to while exploring solutions.

To repeat... MAWA.

At least six killed in Zimbabwe post-election violence

I've been waiting patiently to be able to bring you the results from elections held in Zimbabwe on July 30th. Patience is a must, in African affairs, as things move slowly... very slowly. Future time is expresssed, in Zimbabwe, in phrases with rather vague meanings, which I'll translate for you:
- "Just now", as in "The results will be announced just now." Read: "at some time in the future, but not "now now".
- "Now now", as in "Could we have them now now?" Read: "sometime today".
- "Now now now!", as in "Do it now now now! I'm not going to wait any longer!" Read: "Move your ass, you [racist epithet deleted. Ed.]!"

Old Africa hands, like Walt, were therefore unsurprised when the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission (ZEC), comprised of appointees of the ZANU-PF party which has ruled Zimbabwe since independence in 1980, announced on July 31st that results of the voting would be released, not "just now" but as soon as every last one of the 10,095 polling stations had counted every last one of the ballots.

Elections were held for every office from the presidensity to Zimbabwe's rubber-stamp parliament down to municipal councils. The only race of any consequence pitted 75-year-old Emmerson Mnangagwa, who ousted Comrade Bob Mugabe in an almost bloodless coup last November against Nelson Chamisa, age 40, who succeded to the leadership of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) after the death of its leader, Morgan Tsvangirai.

The ZEC has released results of the parliamentary and local elections in dribs and drabs, from July 31st until this afternoon, local time. The commission has said the vote was conducted properly in accordance with African tradition under the vigilant supervision of the Zimbabwe Republic Police, and was therefore free and fair.

Supporters of the MDC disagreed, and the longer the ZEC delayed announcing the results of the presidential race, the more they complained that the fix was in. One observer, with experience of elections in the USA, said he was reminded of the delayed announcement of results in Philadelphia, where Democratic election officials would call their counterparts in certain black districts to ask for the vote count, at which time they were asked, "How many votes you need?"

Yesterday the opposition supporters got fed up waiting, and took to the streets of Ha-ha-harare, the Fun Capital of Africa, to express their anger. Zimbabwe Newsday, which was apparently afraid to print anything at all yesterday, reported this morning that at least six people were feared to have died last night, while several others sustained gunshot injuries after soldiers and police in Harare used brute force to suppress MDC Alliance activists protesting against alleged electoral theft of their vote by ZANU-PF and the ZEC.

Harare's Central Business District resembled a war zone, as soldiers drove around in their armoured vehicles, stopping every now and then to beat bystanders with sjamboks (still in use after the bad old apartheid days, but it's black on black now). They fired live ammunition indiscriminately at anyone found in the CBD, with several passersby caught in the cross fire.

Once-and-future President Mngagwa said this morning that his government has been in touch with the main opposition leader in an attempt to ease tensions after the election-related violence. Mr Chamisa said only that "We must maintain this dialogue in order to protect the peace we hold dear." Errr, yes. If you know you're going to lose an election in Africa, it's best to start backing towards the door as soon as the outcome can be discerned.

In a series of tweets, Comrade ED* called for an "independent investigation" into the violence in Harare, saying those responsible "should be identified and brought to justice." By that, he obviously meant the opposition, though some international observers criticized the military for opening fire on unarmed civilians. Those observers obviously need to cleanse their minds or their racist assumptions and get used to African ways.

* Footnote: Comrade Mnangagwa's supporters and the local meeja refer to him as "ED". Apparently no-one has told them that "ED" is commonly used here in the civilized (?) world to refer to a little problem that some men have.

Further reading: "Zimbabwe's elections turn violent", The Economist, 2/8/18. "So much for a fresh start...."

Prognostications for 2013

Making predictions about what will happen in the future is a mug's game. Rather than put my sterling track record (lifetime pct .988) on the line, let me tell you (mostly) what's not going to happen in 2013.

America will not fall over the fiscal cliff, at least not all the way. Absent an agreement in the Senate, taxes will (effectively) be increased and spending will be cut, as planned. Most Americans will still be able to get by. No-one will be selling apples of Wall Street or Main Street USA.

Haiti will not be repaired, rebuilt or reconstructed. Billions of dollars in aid money will continue to be poured down the rathole with no apparent effect. Michaëlle Jean will continue to be invisible, at least in her native land.

Hellery Clinton will not announce her candidacy for the presidensity. The campaign will move ahead anyway, with the support of the lamestream media and Democrats living overseas who don't actually have to cope with the Obama maladministration.

Zimbabwe's dictator, Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, will not lose an election to Zuma wannabe Morgan Tsvangirai or anyone else. Indeed, it's quite possible no election will be held. The zimkwacha (Zimbabwe dollar) will not be reintroduced, as remaining supplies are used up as toilet paper.

Pope Benedict XVI will do nothing to lead the Roman Catholic Church back to the traditional Faith of our fathers. But nor will he abdicate, for fear of the fight that would ensue between Cardinal Bertone -- the man who would be pope -- and the thousands of good Catholic clergy and laypeople who think Bertone is the Antichrist whose arrival is imminent.

Bumbling, horse-faced Peter Mackay will not be Canada's Minister of Defence a year from now. The stench of mismanagement and opacity enveloping the proposed purchase of F-35 fighters for the Royal Canadian Air Force won't go away. At least one head must roll, and Machackey's contains nothing but air, so off it comes!

Gary Bettman, the Jewish American lawyer responsible for the Americanization (hence destruction) of hockey, will not be head honcho of the National Hockey League at this time next year. He has the outward support of a majority of NHL owners, but look for someone to check him into the boards shortly after he presents the Stanley Cup.

Christians (in name, at least) will continue to be persecuted, imprisoned and murdered by Muslims in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Nigeria, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia [We're running out of space! Ed.], and by Communists in China, North Korea, Cuba, Vietnam, [Enough martyrs! Ed.] The Church and Western leaders will continue to say we must show tolerance to our poor misunderstood enemies, learn to accommodate them and celebrate diversity!

Note from Ed.: Walt has scribbled a note at the bottom of his manuscript: "That's all I can stands. I can't stands no more!" Hmmm. Well, in spite of his less-than-rosy forecast, Walt and I wish you a New Year filled with peace and prosperity.

Book review: The Fear

Knowing of Walt's interest in Zimbabwe -- one of the poorest and most misruled countries in the world -- Agent 17 asked if I'd yet read The Fear: Robert Mugabe and the Martyrdom of Zimbabwe, by Peter Godwin. I replied that I hadn't, and immediately hied myself off to the local library where I was pleased to find it and a surprising number of other books on Rhodesia and its miserable successor.

Before 17's reminder I hadn't been in a big hurry to get Godwin's book, because I knew of the family and their white liberal, Stephen Clarksonish sympathies. Peter Godwin's parents -- father a Jew, mother not -- came out to Rhodesia after WWII, as did many other Brits who were nothing back in Old Blighty and aspired to be bwanas in British Africa.

Although their children -- Peter and his younger sister Georgina -- went to the right (white) schools and enjoyed the privileges of little baases and medems, they quite unaccountably acquired "red socks", becoming admirers of all things black and haters of the white society of their country. Some Americans would have called them "nigger-lovers".

Predictably, they sympathized with the black terrorists during the bush war of the 70s, and rejoiced at the coming of independence and majority rule. Only later did Peter learn that Comrade Bob's idea of "one man one vote" is that he's the man and his is the vote. The scales fell off Peters's ideas during the Gukurahundi ("ethnic cleansing") in Matabeland in 1983. It was then that he found himself on the wrong side of Mugabe's law, and "gapped it" to greener -- or less black -- pastures.

His sister, Georgina, took a little longer to realize that a dictator is a dictator, no matter whether black or white. She was a spokesperson for Bob's régime until the mid-90s, a bingo-caller on the state-owned radio/TV network -- Zimbabwe's one and only -- until the mid-90s. Peter spends a lot of time, in The Fear, talking about his adorable sister, but modestly omits this little smudge on her résumé.

To get to the book... In April 2008, when it appeared that the MDC (the opposition party led by Morgan Tsvangirai) had won a badly-rigged presidential election and was set to oust Mugabe from power, Peter and his addled sister decided to return to Zimbabwe from their comfortable homes in, errr, New York and London, to record the dramatic reversal of the country's fortunes which was sure to follow.

Things didn't quite turn out that way. In Africa, you can't lose an election. The worst you can do -- in Zimbabwe at least -- is tie. So, while the Godwins were interviewing victims of Mugabe's pre- and post-election violence, Tsvangirai settled for the position of Prime Minister in a Government of National Unity (GNU). Mugabe retained the presidensity and the only key to State House. The GNU, of course, has turned out to be a complete farce, which is why Zimbabweans say no GNUs is good GNUs. Comrade Bob clings to power, and will do so until someone or something does for him.

About half of The Fear is a catalogue of horrific examples of Bob's brutal and relentless campaign against the MDC and all who would oppose him. The details of torture, rape, pillage and murder make gruesome reading. Peter Godwin deserves credit for recording these stories and naming names of victims and perpetrators alike. That part of the book should be read (but not while eating) to appreciate the enormity of Bob's crimes against the humanity. Walt hopes that one day he will be brought to trial, which is exactly what he now fears.

The Fear would be a lot better if an editor had excised the other half of the book, which is given over to little anecdotes about how cute and precious Peter's children and sister are. Sample: "Georgina is tapping at her netbook, which is covered in leopard-print laminate and coordinates with her blouse."

We also learn that Georgina once made love in the open air on top of Cecil Rhodes's grave while rainbow skinks watched, that she gave birth to a daughter named Xanthe and planted a tree on top of the placenta. TMI. Skip over those parts.

You should also ignore Peter's proclivity for hyperbole. He plays fast and loose with numbers. Example: "...up to 700,000 were left homeless". The weasel words there are "up to".

Walt also found annoying the white liberal bias that is still evident in Godwin's writing. He calls the pre-1994 government of South Africa, "the apartheid authority". And Rhodesia was under "white settler rule", not the Ian Smith government. Never mind that the Godwins were themselves white settlers. And never mind that Ian Smith was right, a fact which the author can't bring himself to acknowledge.

Read The Fear anyway for a good explanation of how Mugabe won the 2008 election after all, and insight into how African democracy works. Not.

Democracy in Zimbabwe

I've pretty much worn out the "Democracy in dark countries" title, so will confine myself here to the (almost) darkest of the dark*. That would be Zimbabwe, formerly Rhodesia, formerly Southern Rhodesia, in southern Africa.

Zimbabwe has been ruled since its independence in 1980 by Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the only head of state in the world other than North Korea's Kim Jongil to call himself "Comrade". Comrade Bob was elected in 1980 to serve as prime minister under the figurehead president Canaan Banana. (One of the first laws passed by the new black government was an act making it an offence to poke fun at the president's name.)

A couple of years later, disgruntled that a Banana was living in State House, Bob had the constitution amended to abolish the offices of prime minister and president, replacing Mr. Banana and himself with, errr, himself.

Comrade Bob has been happily (for him) ensconced in State House ever since, pausing every 5 years or so to hold an election which he always won...until 2008. Then, through a failure of the frigging in the rigging, the opposition candidate, Morgan Tsvangirai, got a plurality of the votes. But not quite 50%.

So it was decreed that there should be a run-off, just as in Haiti. Mugabe won the second round -- not a big surprise since Mr Tsvangirai declined to run again, fearing state-orchestrated violence against himself and his supporters.

As a sop to the opposition, and to put a little shine on his much-tarnished victory, Comrade Bob revived the office of prime minister, and declared that Mr Tsvangirai could sit in that chair, just far enough away as to be unable to get his hands on the levers of power.

Bob has now tired of playing that game and wants to have fresh elections not later than this coming June. The machinery of oppression is being cranked into high gear even now, with opposition supporters being arrested on trumped-up charges, incarcerated, tortured and, yes, murdered.

Not surprising, then, that support for the opposition party has dropped from 55% to 38% in recent polls. Support for the ruling party as increased from 12% to 17%. Let's see. 17% plus 38% equals 55%. And the rest? Following a campaign of terror in which some 200 people were killed and 1000s beaten up or tortured, more than 40% of voters refused to express any opinion, one way or another.

Few dare hope (out loud, at least) that the next election will bring any change. The Pope is still Catholic. Bears still shit in the woods. And Comrade Bob is still in power. Zimbabwe -- land of no surprises.

* Competition for the soubriquet "darkest of the dark countries" would be fierce, but the winner today would likely be the so-called Democratic Republic of the Congo. And that's only because Somalia can hardly be considered a country.

Democracy in dark countries - update

On December 9th, Walt commented on the refusal of Laurent Gbagbo, president of Cote d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) to concede defeat in a presidential election held the previous November, even though he had clearly been beaten by Alassane Ouattara.

This is in keeping with African culture, particularly the cult of the "Big Man", the chief of chiefs in the tribal -- "feudal" would be a better word -- system which is still a hallmark of African politics. Once you become a Big Man -- a "chef", as they say in English-speaking Africa -- you remain so for life. Example: the late but not lamented Hastings Kamuzu Banda, who ruled the tiny state of Malawi (formerly Nyasaland) from independence until his death at the age of 100 (or more -- no-one knew for sure).

By comparison, Gbagbo is only 65, so reckons he should have at least three decades left. He clings to power in Abidjan, while Ouattara is setting up shop in Yamoussoukro. Yes, Ivory Coast has not only two presidents, but two capitals.

The former colonial power, France, and the United Nations want to recognize Ouattara, but they're not sure how to dislodge the limpet-like Gbagbo. So rather than impose a white, western concept like "the man with the most votes wins", they've asked on the so-called African Union to find an African solution.

The African Union has responded by appointing a mediating team which is supposed to have a little chat with Messrs Gbagbo and Ouattara -- in separate palaces, one hopes -- to make the peace.

And what a team it is! It includes Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga, elected a couple of years ago in an election widely viewed as a fraud and a travesty. Also on the panel is Goodluck Jonathan [Are you sure that's right? Ed.], who was the president of Nigeria but isn't president yet because the election which he plans on winning has yet to be held. Good luck to him!

It gets better...or worse, depending on your point of view. The chairman of the panel is to be none other than Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe -- once, present and future President of Zimbabwe. Comrade Bob knows a thing or two about disputed elections and clinging to power, having done just that following an unexpected defeat at the polls in 2008.

The story bears repeating. Having been Zimbabwe's chief of chiefs since independence in 1980, Mugabe was compelled, by a need for a semblance of respectability, to seek a renewed mandate. The idea of declaring him "President for Life" had been mooted, but rejected because the givers of foreign aid find it politically difficult to keep throwing money at dictators.

In 2008, for the first time since independence, Mugabe and his ruling Zanu-PF party faced a serious challenge from Morgan Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democractic Change. Tsvangirai was predicted to be the easy winner of a straight two-man fight, so a dupe named Arthur Mutambara was found to head a breakaway faction of the MDC and become the third man in the fight.

After a run-up marked by brutal intimidation of the opposition, the vote was duly held. As the first returns trickled in, Mr. T. was leading Bob by a comfortable margin, with Mutambara a distant third. Then, all of a sudden, the Electoral Commission -- Zanu-PF appointees to a man -- stopped counting the ballots!

Weeks went by. The people of Zimbabwe were understandably keen to know who had won. Finally it was announced that Tsvangirai had received something like 49% of the votes, against 47% for the incumbent. Mr. T. was on his way to State House to measure the windows for new drapes, when constitutional experts reminded everyone that under Zimbabwe's amended constitution, one had to obtain 50% +1 of the votes cast to be elected!

So there would have to be a runoff. Tsvangirai did not want to risk having any more of his supporters lose their lives, so he withdrew. Mugabe ran unopposed and, not surprisingly, won.

That is how Robert Mugabe hung onto power against the wishes of the majority of his countrymen. The experience will no doubt stand him in good stead as he fixes the flawed Ivorian election. "Set a chief to catch a chief." Africa wins again.

Democracy in dark countries - Part I

Three farcical tales of how democracy works in some parts of the world.

In 2008, Comrade Robert Gabriel Mugabe, the dictator who has ruled Zimbabwe ever since its 1980 "liberation" from the evil colonialists, buckled under international pressure to have an election. A strong opposition party was allowed to contest the presidency and other positions.

Considering the levels of pre-election violence and intimidation, Comrade Bob was understandably surprised when early results showed him trailing the opposition leader, Morgan Tsvangirai, with a third candidate running a very poor third. So, quicker than you could say "Bob's your uncle", the counting was suspended and, errr, never finished.

A run-off presidential election was scheduled for some month's later, but Mr. Tsvangirai's party, whose numbers had already been reduced by government-sponsored terrorism, decided that discretion was the better part of valour and did not contest. International observers pronounced themselves less than satisfied, so Comrade Bob graciously gave "the teaboy" the position of Prime Minister in a "Government of National Unity".

There's an old Zimbabwean saying that no GNUs is good GNUs, and so it has proved. True to his word, Mugabe has never allowed Morgan to occupy State House, and continues to rule the country pretty much as he pleases. Now he is threatening -- threatening, mind you -- that if Tsvangirai doesn't stop obstructing him, there will be another election!

Zimbabwe is in southern Africa. All those involved in this farce are African, by which I mean black. But Zimbabwe is not the only country to be subjected to misrule by a corrupt and incompetent black dictatorship. See next post.