For US Secretary of State John Kerry, it must seem like Groundhog Day all over again. Throughout 2004, when he was campaigning against Bush the Younger, he kept talking and talking and talking, but no-one listened. Now, faced with the Russian invasion of its next-door neighbour, he's still talking -- he should be arriving in Kiev right about now -- and still no-one is listening.
No-one includes Russian President Vlad "the Impaler" Putin. He's not listening to Kerry's warnings of dire (but unspecified) consequences. Nor is he paying any attention to the organ-grinder. President Hussein Obama made a statement a couple of days ago warning of dire (but unspecified) consequences. Yesterday he called Putin on the phone. What reception did he get? "Talk to the hand!"
Putin says he's on a "humanitarian mission" to protect the ethnically Russian citizens of the Ukraine -- in particular the Crimea, which coincidentally is a major Russian military base -- from the predations of the Ukeys and Crimea's terrible Tatars. It's all about peacekeeping, you see, and he "reserves the right" to use military force to keep the peace. (Does any of this sound familiar?)
Alas, Obama (and Kerry and all the other "leaders" of the West) have decided to not employ military force to make the Russians withdraw to their side of the border. Obama specifically ruled that out. So what will the USA/UK/EU do? Weellll... there could be sanctions of course, which would have "economic consequences". And there will be "diplomatic action" -- an oxymoron, surely -- such as, errr, not going to the next G8 summit, scheduled for Sochi later this year. Yeah! That will teach those Russkis a thing or two!
What it's taught them, evidently, is that they can do as they damn well please, and no-one in the USA/UK/EU is going to lift a finger -- let alone put boots on the ground -- to stop them. They have already occupied pretty much all of the Crimea and recognize a puppet government which helpfully has asked Russian troops to stay in the "country" to (of course) keep the peace. Ukrainian troops have been given an ultimatum to surrender, and are effectively prisoners in their own bases. The Russians are in control.
Today, Crimea. Tomorrow? Walt guesses tomorrow's target is the rest of the Ukraine east of the Dniepr River. The Ukrainians will be lucky if the Russians stop there, because there is no-one...no-one...with the cojones to stand up for an independent and democratic Ukraine. It's very, very sad.
Further reading: Russia enabled by West’s foreign policies of vacillation, uncertainty -- excellent commentary by Andrew Coyne in Canada's Notional Post.
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