Foreigners warned to leave Crimea before the shooting starts

At the risk of sounding alarmist -- something Walt usually leaves to preachers of doom (Hello Father!) -- it would appear that there's a very real risk of a shooting war in the Crimean "autonomous republic" of the Ukraine. The big question is who the parties will be. Will the conflict pit Ukrainians against Russians? Or will NATO forces come in on the side of the Ukrainians?

We've seen this movie before! We've just passed the 160th anniversary of "Crimea I", in which Russia was defeated by an alliance of France, Britain, the Ottoman Empire -- famous for its production of footstools -- and Sardinia [No more puns, please. Ed.] Although neutral, Austria also played a role in stopping the Russians.

The Crimean War... Think "Charge of the Light Brigade", Florence Nightingale, and Napoleon III. More colourful uniforms than we're going to see this time. More horses. Same sets and scenery though. And some of the same causes.

The proximate cause was the rights of Christians in the Holy Land, which was part of the Ottoman Empire which extended eastward along the shores of the Black Sea and included much of the Balkans as well. The French championed the rights of Catholics, while Russia promoted those of the Orthodox. Today, the western part of the Ukraine is predominantly Byzantine Catholic, while the east is Orthodox.

Behind the religious and ethnic conflict was the unwillingness of Britain and France to allow Russia to gain territory and power as the Ottoman Empire fell apart. Russia destroyed the Ottoman fleet at the Black Sea port of Sinope. To stop Russia's advance, France and Britain entered the war in March 1854.

Most of the fighting took place for control of the Black Sea, with land battles on the Crimean peninsula, which was then part of Russia. The Russians held their great fortress at Sevastopol for over a year. After it fell, peace was arranged at Paris in March 1856. The main results were that the Black Sea was neutralized, with Russia agreeing not to station any warships there.

After the Russian revolution of 1917 and the prolonged civil war which followed, the Ukraine was forcibly annexed to "Mother Russia" as part of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR). In 1954, the Communists transferred the Crimean Oblast was transferred from the Russian republic to the Ukrainian SSR. It thrived as a prime tourist destination; its infrastructure and manufacturing were also developed, particularly around its capital of Simferopol and the seaports at Kerch and...wait for it...Sevastopol.

When the Ukraine became independent following the break-up of the USSR, the Crimean Oblast was upgraded to that of an "Autonomous Republic". Russia received long-term leases of military bases in and around Sevastopol, which today is home to large units of Russia's army and air force, and...its also large Black Sea fleet -- as in "warships".

So here we are in 2014, "back to the future" -- 1856 to be exact. The eastern part of the Ukraine is oriented to Russia. The majority of Crimeans are ethnically and linguistically Russian. They are being offered Russian passports to prove their identity should Russia feel it necessary to "help" them against the "neo-Nazi thugs" who have "staged a coup" against Ukrainian president Yanukovich. That's what happened in Georgia in 2008.

Sure enough, BBC News reports this morning that the unofficial pro-Moscow leader of the "autonomous Crimea region" has asked Russian President Vladimir Putin for "help to ensure peace". A Kremlin source said it would "not leave unnoticed" the request from Sergiy Aksyonov.

Western leaders are not leaving the situation unnoticed either. They are responding with the usual torrent of stern warnings and drawings of red lines. European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso has said he is shocked, SHOCKED by reports of the "violation of Ukraine's sovereignty". President Hussein O'Bama warned Moscow against any military intervention.

Even as he spoke, unidentified soldiers, thought to be Russian, fanned out in the south of the peninsula, surrounding airports and communications centres. According to Mr Aksyonov, soldiers from Russia's Black Sea Fleet are merely standing on guard at strategic buildings. Against whom, he did not say.

The Ukraine's interim Prime Minister, Arseniy Yatsenyuk, accused Russia of seeking to provoke an escalation. "The presence of Russian soldiers is a provocation and we demand that Russian soldiers return to their permanent bases," he said. Will they do so? Will the Obama send in US troops if they don't? Will the sun rise in the west? Stay tuned!

UPDATE: Russian president Vlad "the Impaler" Putin has received permission from the upper house of that country's parliament to use military force in Crimea. Foreigners are being advised by their governments to get out while the getting out is good!