Even though it's the longest-running continuous military engagement in US history, some time has passed since the Gulf Wars (aka Oil Wars) was front page news in the Paranoid States of America. That may be about to change as the fighting enters a new phase.
Now that the ISIS (the Sunni Muslim terrorist "state") has been more or less defeated, at least in Iraq, the "victors" -- Shiite Muslims in the south and Kurds in the north -- are starting to fight each other. Western armed forces, mostly American, are caught in the middle, "training and advising" both sides.
The last noteworthy battle in Iraq, which dragged on through most of this summer, was in Mosul, the heart of the Kurdish part of Iraq, also in the middle of large oil fields. The area is also home to millions of Arabs, Turkmen, Yazidis and a few thousand persecuted Christians. Mainly Kurdish forces, led into battle by American and Canadian "trainers" succeeded in driving out the ISIS jihadis.
Last month, flush with success and swimming in oil money, the Kurdish government of the semi-autonomous region held a referendum on independence, in defiance of Iraq's central government in Baghdad. To no-one's surprise, the Kurds voted overwhelmingly in favour of declaring the own republic. They already had a flag, so figured a state would make the set complete. The Iraqi government immediately called on foreign countries to stop importing oil from the Kurdish region and to deal with them instead.
This weekend the Iraqi government dropped the other shoe. The so-called Iraqi National Army and state-backed Shia militias launched a major, multi-pronged attack aimed at retaking Kirkuk. Kurdish forces appeared to be pulling back, abandoning fortified positions around the airport as large numbers of civilians fled the northern city ahead of a feared assault.
This latest phase in what is essentially a Muslim civil war pits two close US allies against each other, potentially undermining the unfinished war against ISIS. There is a very real possibility, right now, of American "trainers" and "special forces" being killed by Canadians, or (more likely) vice versa. Walt says it's folly to take sides in this conflict -- a waste of money and of the precious lives of our troops. Let the Muslims duke it out! We can buy oil from any of them... hell, all of them!
Further reading: Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq, by Thomas E. Ricks (Penguin Press 2006).
Ever wonder what happened to those cool German army helmets from WWII? The ones that inspired the design of present-day American military and police headgear? Well, the originals -- the ones that didn't get holes in them -- are still in use by the Pakistani army, as witness this picture of Pakistani troops watching each others' backs after a shootout with Islamic militants on the outskirts of Peshawar today. Security forces raided a militant hideout in the city before dawn, triggering a shootout in which three Pakistani Taliban were killed.
The raid on the Taliban hideout (of which the government was obviously aware) seems to have been in retaliation for a wave of suicide bombings and shootings which swept the border region next door to Afghanistan yesterday -- the last Friday of Ramadan. Twin blasts in the northwestern town of Parachinar had sent another 55 Muslims to Paradise, with many others in critical condition. Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, a Sunni Muslim extremist group, claimed responsibility for the bombings at a crowded market in the Shia-dominated town, linking them to the main theatre of the Muslim civil war in Syria.
Meanwhile, near the office of the provincial police chief in the southwestern city of Quetta, another 14 people were killed Friday in a suicide car bombing. That attack was claimed by ISIS and a breakaway Taliban faction. But wait (as Vince Offer used to say), there's more! In Pakistan's largest city, Karachi, gunmen attacked police officers at a roadside restaurant, killing four of them before fleeing, according to Inspector Mohammed. That brings the total death toll for one to... let's see... 55 + 14 + 4... carry the 1... 73! Quite something for a day of fasting and prayer.
The scene shifts now to Saudi Arabia, where (the Grauniad reports) Saudi security forces have foiled an Islamic terror plot targeting the Grand Mosque in Mecca and pilgrims heading there to celebrate the end of Ramadan.
An Interior Ministry spokesthingy told the meeja that security forces exchanged gunfire with one of the suspects, who blew himself up inside a home. Five security force members and six "other people" were injured, according to the state-owned Al-Arabiya website. Five people were arrested, including a woman suspected of attempting to drive a car.
Inspector Mohammed said the ministry "confirms that this terrorist network, whose terrorist plan was thwarted, violated, in what they would have perpetrated, all sanctities by targeting the security of the Grand Mosque, the holiest place on Earth. They obeyed their evil and corrupt self-serving schemes managed from abroad whose aim is to destabilize the security and stability of this blessed country."
The ministry did not name the group involved in the attack. The ultraconservative Sunni kingdom battled an Al-Qaeda insurgency for years and more recently has faced attacks from a local branch of ISIS.
WHOA! Hold `er Newt! This is not a new story. Rather, it's a look at something that happened 30 years and 3 days ago -- the biggest airplane crash (by number of casualties) ever to occur on Canadian soil. Walt presents it to make the point that radical Islamic terrorism -- the phrase the Prez can't say -- is not a new thing. The jihadists have been waging war on us for decades.
Just yesterday Egyptian authorities released their report into the crash of Metrojet flight 7K9268, which disintegrated over the Sinai at the beginning of November. The Egyptians persist in their assertion that the Russian plane was not brought down by Islamic terrorists. However, the Russians and the American military believe that an ISIS affiliate did it. And it wouldn't be the first time.
Rewind to 12 December 1985. A DC8-63F operating as Flight 1285 by Arrow Air, under contract to the US Army, takes off just before dawn from Gander, Newfoundland, after a refuelling stop of about 90 minutes. It is carrying a crew of 8 and 248 pax -- US servicemen going home to the 101st Airborne base at Fort Campbell KY after a tour of duty in Lebanon.
The weather is misty and cool, close to the freezing point. The flight engineer does a walk-around but apparently sees nothing that would make him call for de-icing. The plane taxis down Runway 04, lifts off but fails to gain altitude. Seconds later it crashes into the forest and burns, about half a mile from the end of the runway, killing all aboard.
Initial reports from the scene include eyewitness accounts of an explosion and fire before the plane hit the trees. Not a day later, all mention of fire has disappeared from news reports, and the probable cause is put down to icing.
The crucial evidence that could have pointed to the cause should have been found in the so-called "black boxes" which were recovered intact. However, investigators said, the Cockpit Voice Recorder was defective and failed to record anything. And, unfortunately, the Flight Data Recorder was an older model that only recorded four parameters. It was scheduled for replacement a few weeks later.
The accident (???) was investigated by the Canadian Aviation Safety Board, which found that on Flight 1285's approach to Gander -- no more than two hours before the crash -- precipitation conditions were favourable for the formation of ice on the aircraft's wings. After landing, the CASB said, it continued to be exposed to "freezing and frozen precipitation capable of producing roughening on the wing upper surface" in addition to the freezing temperature. They also found that prior to takeoff the aircraft had not been de-iced.
Five out of nine members of the CASB signed the final report. In the Probable Cause section, they wrote:
The Canadian Aviation Safety Board was unable to determine the exact sequence of events which led to this accident. The Board believes, however, that the weight of evidence supports the conclusion that, shortly after lift-off, the aircraft experienced an increase in drag and reduction in lift which resulted in a stall at low altitude from which recovery was not possible. The most probable cause of the stall was determined to be ice contamination on the leading edge and upper surface of the wing. Other possible factors such as a loss of thrust from the number four engine and inappropriate take-off reference speeds may have compounded the effects of the contamination.
No fewer than four members of the CASB disagreed. In an unusual and controversial move, they issued a minority opinion asserting that there was no evidence presented proving that ice had been present on leading edges such as the wings. And, they speculated, "An in-flight fire that may have resulted from detonations of undetermined origin brought about catastrophic system failures."
The five-to-four opinion caused so much debate that the Canadian government appointed Willard Estey, a retired judge of the Supreme Court of Canada, to review the findings. Nearly four years later, he ruled that the available evidence did not support either conclusion.
Two years after that, in 1991, Les Filotas, one of the four CASB board members who dissented in the final report, published Improbable Cause, an exhaustive argument for the opinion that a possible in-flight explosion doomed the aircraft.
Mr. Filotas demanded that attention be paid to a call made on the day of the crash to a French news agency in Beirut -- the point of origin of the Flight 1285. According to United Press International, "Hours after the crash the Islamic Jihad – a Shiite Muslim extremist group – claimed it destroyed the plane to prove [its] ability to strike at the Americans anywhere." As noted above, the jihadists' claim was dismissed by both the American and Canadian governments within 24 hours.
20/20 revisited the story in April 2014. Here's the video, running time 30 minutes.
Even though it's the longest-running continuous military engagement in US history, some time has passed since the Gulf Wars (aka Oil Wars) was front page news in the Paranoid States of America. That may be about to change as the fighting enters a new phase.
