7K9268 almost certainly downed by Islamic terrorist bomb

Reports from France and the UK this morning confirm that the crash in the Sinai Peninsula of Metrojet flight 7K928 was not caused by a mechanical or technical failure. Experts with Airbus and French and British aviation authorities have analyzed the "black boxes" -- voice and data recorders -- from the aircraft, and say there is no indication of any problems with the engines or mechanical or electrical systems.

That leaves only one plausible explanation -- a bomb planted somewhere in the airplane's hold, probably smuggled aboard in someone's luggage. "Chatter" monitored by Western security services appears to confirm this explanation.

So does data from the "black boxes", according to Le Point. In "Crash dans le Sinaï : l'attentat confirmé par les boîtes noires", published yesterday, the French weekly quotes an unnamed expert as saying "It was not a technical issue, but an outside action," suggesting the cause of the crash, which killed all 224 people on board, was likely an explosion.

Who would be responsible for such a dastardly act of terrorism? Answers on the back of a postage stamp, please, to the usual address.

7K9268: US military intelligence believes ISIS did it

Following up on "Metrojet crash in Sinai caused by IS militants?", posted here on Monday, we see now a lot more photos of charred debris from Metrojet flight 7K9268, indicating that there was an explosion and fire of some kind. This is not the sort of thing you would find if, say, the tail fell off, as initial reports suggested. The question now is, what caused the explosion?

American military intelligence [No remarks about oxymorons, please. Ed.] told us, a couple of days ago, that it couldn't be the work of ISIS or any of its affiliates, because they don't have the missile technology to hit a plane flying at 31,000 feet. In reply, Islamic extremists said -- Walt translates from the Arabic -- "Who said anything about missiles? We just said we brought it down!"

Well, an unnamed US official told CNN, they must have planted a bomb inside the plane then. "There is a definite feeling it was an explosive device planted in luggage or somewhere on the plane," were his exact words. "It is believed to be an explosion but what kind is not clear. There is an examination of the sand at the crash site to try and determine if it was a bomb." Walt wonders if there is some type of explosive device other than a bomb!

That ISIS did it, in some way, is only a suspicion in the minds of the US military at this point. You can almost hear them saying, "Yeah, that's it... ISIS did it... yeah... They probably did MH370 too!"

Metrojet crash in Sinai caused by IS militants?

First the facts. On Saturday morning, Metrojet flight 7K9268 crashed into the Sinai Peninsula. The flight’s planned route was from Sharm el-Sheikh to St. Petersburg, Russia. Click here to see the flight path, altitude and speed changes acquired by Flightradar24. All three of their receivers stopped receiving data at exactly the same time, 0413 GMT.

So what happened? The jetliner -- a leased Airbus A-321 operated by Russian airline Kogalymavia -- apparently disintegrated while at cruising altitude. It either exploded or was blown apart or just... broke up. Within hours, a militant group affiliated to Islamic State in Egypt claimed responsibility for bringing down the jet, but Egypt and Russia disputed the claim, suggesting militants in northern Sinai, where Egypt has been fighting an Islamic insurgency, did not have the weaponry to hit a flight at 31,000 feet. Pictures of the debris show no signs of burn or scorch marks.

The airliner's black boxes have been recovered, but have not yet been analyzed. Yesterday, however, an official of Kogalymavia put the disaster down to "external activity". Alexander Smirnov, the deputy director of the airline, ruled out a technical fault and pilot error. "The only [explanation] for the plane to have been destroyed in mid-air can be specific impact, purely mechanical, physical influence on the aircraft," he said. "There is no such combination of failures of systems which could have led to the plane disintegrating in the air."

A regional expert on Sinai security said on Sunday that the militant group’s statement "said they were responsible for downing the plane, not shooting it down." Zack Gold told the Guardian, "A legitimate ISIS-supporting account in Sinai said, 'Why is everyone talking about shooting it down, why is no one talking about a bomb or suicide bomber on board.'"

He explained that if a bomb had been planted on the plane, it would suggest security systems at Sharm el-Sheikh airport had been infiltrated or compromised, which would raise a whole range of other questions. But, he added, there has been nothing to support the claim so far, such as a pre-mission video of a suicide attacker. "The group does not have a history of major fabrications, but at the same time it's curious that they would make this claim without providing any kind of evidence. They have military capabilities, but to carry out this kind of terrorism [on a plane] they would have to display organization they haven’t shown [before]."

If it turns out that the IS affiliate in Egypt is indeed responsible, what does that portend for the American-led "war on terror" in the Middle East? Will the Russians, now bombing the jihadis in Syria, take the fight to the jihadis in Egypt? And which side will the USA take? Stay tuned.