The pressure is building! Walt's acolytes, followers and casual readers are waiting for guidance on how to bet. The barbershop is closed today so it's a good time to sit quietly and do the numbers, state by state.
There are 538 votes to be cast in the Electoral College. The magic number is 270. From his vantage point near Fort Mudge, Walt can see nine states with a total of 110 electoral votes that are "in play" -- too close to call.
Not included in the remaining 41 states (and DC) is Utah. I'm giving that one to Romney because [They already know that! Ed.] ...and Idaho for the same reason. [Get on with it!! Ed.]
OK. Also not included are New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. There's been a lot of pissing and moaning in the lamestream media about federal aid not getting through to the victims of Sandy quickly enough. Obama's presidential photo ops amidst the devastation looked fine, they say, but a lot of voters will be disaffected by this demonstration that the Prez doesn't have all that much control over the federal administration, and will get revenge by voting for the Inevitable Mitt. Rubbish. Anyone who thinks there was ever any chance of NY, NJ and CT going Republican is seriously deluded.
Which brings us to Pennsylvania and Michigan, the bottom of the rust bucket. Gentle reader, please don't be misled by the lamestream media hype. Those states aren't in doubt. Obama will sweet Philthydelphia and the rest of PA doesn't matter. 20 electoral votes for Obama.
As for MI, the name "Romney" is remembered there, and not fondly. When they think "Romney" Michiganders [and Michigeese. Ed.] think cars. When they think cars they think American Motors, and, more recently, the younger Romney's statements about letting the US auto industry die, if that were the will of the free market. Obama's got him on that one. Another 16 votes for Hussein.
So, with nine states left to call, Walt's abacus shows totals of 237 for the incumbent and only 191 for the wannabe. Romney has to find 79 electoral votes somewhere to win, Obama only 33.
Look south, folks. And keep in mind that race is still a deciding factor. Frankly, Walt was surprised, in 2008, when American voters handed the keys to the car to a black (or half-black) man. Well, OK, the point was made and America is now a "post-racist" society, right?
Wrong! A study by researchers at Stanford University and the Universities of Chicago and Michigan, released last week by AP, shows that although "racist" views are quieter today, they're still echoing in the minds of voters.
"Anti-black sentiment seems to have increased slightly in America over the course of Mr. Obama's term," the report says, "and this sentiment may be shaping evaluations of (his) presidency as well as the likelihood that individuals will vote for him in 2012."
Leaving aside Dade County, Florida is still pretty much a southern state, in its attitudes, and North Carolina decidedly so. Walt predicts they'll both go Republican, although FL may be very close, once again. 44 electoral votes for Mitt.
I will now contradict myself by awarding Iowa (6 votes) and New Hampshire (4) to Obama. I'd have thought the Iowans, in particular, would know which end of the straw to stick in their mouths, but polls in one of the whitest of all states show the Prez with a pretty solid lead. NH seems to be affected by its proximity to Massachusetts, where Romney is oddly unloved in spite of a government-mandated health plan that looked not unlike Obamacare.
On to Wisconsin, with its substantial Catholic population. Can a native son carry his state for the Republicans? Walt thinks so, but not because Paul Ryan is as close as you can get to being a real practising Catholic. Rather, it's because Ryan and Romney are not Muslim.
A recent Pew poll found that less than half of voters surveyed believe that Obama is Christian, and 17% believe he's actually a Muslim. The poll also showed that the number of Republicans who believe Obama is Muslim has doubled to 30% since the last election. His bitterest foes keep calling him "Hussein", because that is his (middle) name.
The underlying meaning is that Obama is an outsider, a foreigner in his attitudes and outlook, if not by birth. He is seen in much of the USA as basically un-American, even anti-American. That's why his tepid, even grovelling response to the Benghazi terrorist attack won't go away. 10 more votes in the Republican column.
If you're keeping score, it's now 247 to 245, favour Obama, with just four states -- Colorado, Nevada, Virginia and Ohio -- left.
You'd think Nevada would be a lock for Romney, what with its substantial Mormon population and wild west, free enterprise character. But you'd be ignoring Las Vegas and its large number of Latino voters, who don't much like the Republican stance on immigration and related issues. Latest polls put NV in the Democrat column, and who am I to argue. 6 for Obama.
Giving Colorado (9 votes) also to Obama -- just because -- raises the Democrat total to 262. So it all comes down to Virginia (13 votes) and Ohio (18). Walt thinks VA is likely to go Republican, since it, too, is at heart a southern state. But Romney still has to win Ohio before he can start measuring the drapes in the Oval Office.
It has been pointed out dozens of times within the last 24 hours alone that no Republican has ever been elected president without winning Ohio. Which is not to say that no Republican has ever been elected president. Walt says... ... ... ... still too early to make the call.
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