Last week was a slow news week. Republican presidential wannabes are chewing on each other's haunches. The Greeks and the EU are still in denial about the former's effective bankruptcy and the inevitable demise of the euro. (Lifetime pct .986) And sound of gunfire and explosions reverberates through the streets of Baghdad, Tripoli, Homs, Damascus, Cairo etc. etc. ad infinitum.
As to Syria, the usual forces for Peace and Progress are shrieking that Something Must Be Done. And since the Arab Union (sic) and the United (sic) Nations can't agree to do anything, who better to take matters in hand than the good ole US of A.
There's also been some talk that Weapons of Mass Destruction -- to wit, nuclear bombs -- are being developed by Iran. You may think you've seen this movie before, but that was Iraq and the intended target of the non-existent WMDs was... well... that was never altogether clear but it didn't really matter, since the WMDs were really just a pretext to start a fight that the US was pretty sure it could win. (Lifetime pct .010)
No, the next American invasion of a Middle Eastern country will be a sequel to the glorious successes of Iraq and Afghanistan. And it's been in the pipeline -- the oil pipeline, that is -- for at least nine years.
In February of 2003, John Bolton (then "under-secretary of state for arms control" -- how's that for a title?!) told Israeli government officials that it would be "necessary to deal with" Iran, Syria and North Korea after the war in Iraq. Source: respected journalist Gwynne Dyer, in his column of 30 March 2003, reproduced in With Every Mistake (Random House, 2005).
Note, please, that Bolton was speaking to Israeli officials. Today the high-ranking American "advisor" doing the talking is General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff. General Dempsey, echoed by UK Foreign Secretary William Hague, is warning the Israelis not to attack Israel, because an Israeli attack is "not prudent". Since that phrase was already taken, Mr. Hague said an attack would not be "a wise thing".
Walt's translation and sub-text: "Hang on a minute. We're not ready yet!"
Clearly, if the Jews start a war with Iran, they will be counting on the West to intervene on their side. And plenty of people in high places in London, Ottawa and (especially) Washington would be happy to do so. The only problem is that the West is broke. The war in Afghanistan is still syphoning billions of dollars a month out of the American and Canadian economies, and the governments of Britain and other EU countries are still pouring their pounds and euros down the rathole that is Greece. The West can't afford another war.
Nor can Israel, if the West doesn't send troops, arms and matériel. Yet Iran is the Middle Eastern power the Jews fear most. Israel believes a nuclear-armed Iran would be a threat to its very existence, citing Iran's support for Arab militant groups, its sophisticated arsenal of missiles capable of reaching Israel, and its leaders' calls for the destruction of the Jewish state.
The Jews have been known to attack their neighbours before. There was the infamous Six-Day (Non-)War in 1967. In 1981, the Israeli air force destroyed an unfinished Iraqi nuclear reactor. And in 2007, Israeli warplanes are believed to have destroyed a target in Syria that foreign "experts" think might have been an unfinished nuclear reactor... or possibly a hospital, who knows?
But Iran would prove a much tougher nut to crack than Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq or Syria. It is doubtful that the Israelis could single-handedly destroy, Iran's nuclear facilities, if such there be. And the Iranians (not being Arabs) would surely fight back. They could fire missiles at Israel, get their Muslim friends Hezbollah and Hamas to launch rockets into "the Jewish entity" and cause global oil prices to spike by striking targets in the Gulf.
So... if the Jews are smart ["if"? Ed.] they'll wait until Western support has gone from rhetoric to military readiness. That should take until 2013, at least. Walt's prediction: no war against Iran... this year. (Lifetime pct .986)
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