Way back in 2011 -- note the date carefully -- Colin Woodard, a writer/historian/journalist from Maine, wrote American Nations -- A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America (Viking). Part history, part sociology and part ethnography, the book traces the formation of Yankeedom, the Deep South, the Left Coast, etc from the 17th century to the early 21st century.
Since the cultural revolution of the hippy-dippy 60s, the fault lines between North America's regional interests have been growing ever wider, resulting in the division of America into left and right, blue and red, and urban and rural "nations". In the decade since the book was published, the split has been almost 50-50, as witness the elections that brought President Trump and Crooked Joe Biden to power. What happens next?
In the Epilogue, Mr Woodard reveals his liberal bias. He wants to see the US of A held together as a "liberal democracy". But he wonders if that's possible. Here are two key excerpts, with Walt's contrarian comments.
Once the great exporter of innovations, products, and financial capital, the United States is now deeply indebted to China, on which it relies for much of what its people consume and, increasingly, for the scientists and engineers needed by research and development firms and institutions.
Its citizenry is deeply divided along regional lines, with some in the "Tea Party" movement adopting the rhetoric of the eighteenth-century Yankee minutemen, only with the British Parliament replaced by the federal Congress, and George III by their duly elected president. Its military has been mired in expensive and frustrating counterinsurgency wars in Mesopotamia and Central Asia, while barbarians have stormed the gates of its political and financial capitals, killing thousands in the surprise attaches of September 2001.
Add in the damage to public confidence in the electoral system caused by the 2000 election [the 2016 and 2020 elections were even worse!], the near-total meltdown of the financial sector in 2008 [and the near panic of last month!], and extreme political dysfunction in the Capitol [and that was in the Prez's first term!], and it's clear the United States has not started the century auspiciously....
One scenario that might preserve the status quo for the United States would be for its nations to follow the Canadian example [Eh? Trudeau's Canada?] and compromise on their respective cultural agendas for the sake of unity. Unfortunately, neither the Dixie bloc nor the Northern alliance is likely to agree to major concessions to the other.
The majority of Yankees, New Netherlanders and Left Coasters simple aren't going to accept living in an evangelical Christian theocracy with weak or non-existent social, labor, or environmental protections, public school systems, and checks on corporate power in politics.
Most Deep Southerners will resist paying higher taxes to underwrite the creation of a public health insurance system; a universal network of well-resourced, unionized, and avowedly secular schools; tuition-free public universities where science--not the King James Bible--guides inquiry; taxpayer-subsidized public transportation; high-speed railroad networks; and renewable energy projects; or vigorous regulatory bodies to ensure compliance with strict financial, food safety, environmental, and campaign finance laws. [This prescription for a better America might have been written by Bernie Sanders!]
Instead, the "red" and "blue" nations will continue to wrestle with one another for control over federal policy, each doing what it can to woo the "purple" ones to their cause, just as they have since they gathered at the First Continental Congress.
Another outside possibility is that, faced with a major crisis, the federation's leaders will betray their oath to uphold the U.S. Constitution, the primary adhesive holding the union together. In the midst of, say, a deadly pandemic outbreak [Written in 2001. How did he know?!] or the destruction of several cities by terrorists, a fearful public might condone the suspension of civil rights, the dissolution of Congress, or the incarceration of Supreme Court justices.
One can easily imagine circumstances in which some nations are happy with the new order and other deeply opposed to it. With the Constitution abandoned, the federation could well disintegrate, forming one or more confederations of like-minded regions.
Chances are these new sovereign entities would be based on state boundaries, because state governors and legislators would be the most politically legitimate actors in such a scenario. Sates dominated by the three Northern alliance nations--New York, New Jersey, and the New England, Great Lakes, and Pacific Northwest States might form one or more confederations. States controlled by the Deep South -- South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana -- might form another. The mountain and High Plains states of the Far West would constitute an obvious third.
The situation might be more complicated within often-divided Greater Appalachia or the "nationally mixed" states of Texas, California, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Arizona. It's not impossible to imagine some of the resulting coalitions extending into Canada, or, in the case of El Norte, Mexico.
If this extreme scenario were to come to pass, North America would likely be a far more dangerous, volatile, and unstable place, inviting meddling from imperial powers overseas. If this scenario of crisis and breakup seems far-fetched, consider the fact that, forty years ago, the leaders of the Soviet Union would have thought the same thing about their continent-spanning federation.
Mr Woodard's preferred scenario is clear enough, but is that how things will play out, or is the US of A headed for another civil war? Stay tuned.
No comments:
Post a Comment