UPDATED: Roe v. Wade to be overturned? What happens then?

Pierre Poilievre, front-run in the Conservative Party of Canada's third leadership election in six years, should be glad to be alive. As Walt told you in "The problem with Poilievre" (WWW 30/4/22), his mother was a 16-year-old, unwed, Irish-Canadian Catholic. Although Canada had allowed abortions (with restrictions and mandatory counselling first) since 1969, abortion on demand wasn't permissible until the Supreme Court of Canada decided R. v. Morgenthaler in 1988. Mr Poilievre was born in 1979.

I mention this because Breitbart News reports this morning that what purports to be a draft of an opinion in Case No. 19-1392 in the Supreme Court of the United States, Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization. The opinion, possibly written by Justice Samuel Alioto, would overrule Roe v. Wade, which made abortion on demand legal in the USA.

If the document is genuine, leaking it would be an act of betrayal by one of the 45 people with access to such material, all of them sworn to reveal not a word of any discussions or opinions until an opinion has been signed by at least five justices. The leak of this draft would be one of the greatest scandals to ever hit America's highest court 

A key part of the possible draft reads: "It is time to heed the Constitution and return the issue of abortion to the people’s elected representatives." It makes the case that where the Constitution is silent, the American people govern themselves through elections and elected leaders, not federal judges. 

It quotes the late Justice Antonin Scalia, who said, "The permissibility of abortion, and the limitations upon it, are to be resolved like most important questions in our democracy: by citizens trying to persuade one another and then voting.That is what the Constitution and the rule of law demand."

BN moots the possibility that draft opinion (if it is genuine) is an attempt to intimidate one or more justices to reverse their vote, or to ignite a liberal brushfire to pack the Supreme Court before Democrats lose control of Congress in November's mid-term elections.

The usual Democratic suspects, who all seem to have received copies of the leaked document overnight, issued statements of outrage, disgust, yada yada yada just before sunrise. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Chuck "Charles" Schumer said SCOTUS seemed "poised to inflict the greatest restriction of rights in the past 50 years – not just on women but on all Americans."

Hellery Clinton, former secretary of state, former first lady, and former (and future?) contender for the presidensity, called the opinion "outrageous". (Apparently the adjective "unacceptable", meaning contrary to the liberal orthodoxy, has not been we widely adopted by the Democrats as by the Liberals of Canuckistan.)

Another Dumbocrat, New York Governor Kathy Hochul, said the draft opinion was a "disgraceful attack" on "women's right to choose", and said abortion would "always be safe and accessible" in the Empire State.

Ms Hochul was probably thinking about a recent report from the Guttmacher Institute, a pro-abortion policy and research NGO, on the probable effects of the overthrow of Roe v. Wade. They estimated that the 26 states coloured in red(ish), mostly in the South and Midwest, would ban abortion, and people in those states would need to travel, in some cases for days, to reach a clinic in a state with liberal abortion laws, coloured in blue(ish).

There should be a boom, then, in abortion tourism, and Ms Hochul expects New York to benefit. Visit the Empire State Building and the Statue of Liberty and have an unwelcome appendage removed at the same time.

Ms Hochul has probably not thought about [or, being American, is unaware of... Ed.] the competition from clinics on the north side of the World's Longest Undefended (and how!) Border. In Vancouver and Toronto, which have huge south Asian communities, sex-selective abortion -- killing unwanted girl babies -- is not just legal but a going concern. How terrible for the USA if the draft opinion is confirmed. More business lost to those crazy-but-progressive Canucks! 

Further reading: "After Chanting Outside SCOTUS All Night, Crowd Of Worshippers Still Can't Get Moloch To Answer Them", Babylon Bee, 3/5/22. Is it satire or not? You be the judge. [Geddit? Ed.]

UPDATE ADDED @ 1330: Further reading: "Supreme Court confirms leaked opinion on Roe v. Wade is 'authentic' but not a 'final position'", LifeSite News, 3/5/22. "Pro-lifers will have to wait a bit longer to find out if Roe v. Wade has really been overturned." If you don't want to wait, sign the petition at the bottom of the LifeSite page.

It is said that SCOTUS Chief Justice John Roberts has ordered the Marshal of the Court to investigate how the virtually unprecedented leak occurred. Walt's suggestion: Ask the most recent appointee to the bench what she knows!