Although this book is about my fight for justice following Sergei Magnitsky's murder, I can draw a straight line from his murder to Putin's invasion of Ukraine.
As my team and I ultimately learned from the Magnitsky case, Putin and about 1000 of his people have stolen at least $1 trillion from the Russian state over a 22-year period. Instead of hospitals, schools, roads, and other public services, it was spent on yachts, private planes, luxury villas, and foreign bank accounts.
Putin knows that if he loses power, he would lose his fortune, he would go to jail, and he would probably be killed. For Putin, losing power is an existential threat. He'll do what every autocrat does when he's worried about his people rising up against him. He'll pull out the dictator's playbook, create a foreign enemy and start a war.
In 2014, following a rigged election and Putin's widely perceived illegitimate return to the Russian presidency, he illegally annexed Crimea and invaded eastern Ukraine.
These actions provoked no serious pushback from the West. There were no meaningful sanctions, Russia wasn't cut off from the international financial system, no Western companies pulled out, and there was absolutely no military response.
Fast forward to 2022. Following the pandemic, Putin's popularity was once again fading. Since he couldn't lose power, and since he knew from experience that there would be no personal downside to another war, from his perspective invading Ukraine made perfect sense. It could shore up his power at home, and there would be no negative consequences for him.
The war in Ukraine has exposesd Putin. Now everyone is asking: how does this all end? Liberal policy makers, pundits, political scientists, globalists and one-worlders tell us that if Ukraine were to make some concessions to Putin, there will be peace and everything will go back to the way it was.
These people fail to understand Putin. To truly appreciate where he is coming from, you have to be a criminologist, not a political scientist. He is a scared little man who's stolen too much money and is terrified of the consequences. What he wants -- what he needs -- is to stay in power at all costs.
Therefore the purpose of Russia's war with Ukraine is simple to be at war. War is his endgame. Ultimately, there are only two ways this terrible situation will be resolved. Either Russia wins the war, or Ukraine wins the war. That's it.
If Putin wins in Ukraine, then we will be faced with two unacceptable paths, a true military confrontation with a nuclear Russia, or abject appeasement as Putin continues to gobble up more and more countries. We need to avoid this. Ukraine must win.
Right now, the Ukrainians are doing the West's fighting for us. Like it or not, they are the tip of the spear, and we should give them every bit of assistance. So far, we've given them enough not to lose. But we haven't yet given them enough to win.
Giving in to Putin will only encourage his imperialism. If a triumphant Putin follows Ukraine with an attack on a NATO country, then we will be at the beginning of world War III -- and the fallout from that will make our current worries about inflation and the future look like a Sunday stroll through the park.
One big lesson I've learned from Sergei Magnitsky's murder and my ongoing struggle with Putin is that 90 percent of Putin's strength comes from the perception that he is strong. He is not. He knows this viscerally -- it's why he started this war against Ukraine in the first place -- and he is terrified.
If our leaders could take this lesson to heart and stand firm to deny Putin his strength, then he'd be out business very quickly. I hope we can succeed. We must!
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